FOF2K4: Is this guy definitely a bust?
 

He's available in the 5th round, so I'll probably take a flyer on him because of his huge upside...

Even though his volatility is low, I'd take him if you have a defensive coordinator who has good ratings for defensive linemen. I'd consider him a project for sure.

Outlook not so good.

He'll take a few years to develop, and his upside will probably be reduced to the high 30s, low 40s. My system, while probably underrating D-Linemen, still sees this guy as a flop not worthy of a draft pick.

Who still uses those generic helmets? ;)

5th round pick? Yeah, I'd take him I think. His run-stopping will be useful, if nothing else.

not sure but this guy definitely is

Wasn't there a general discussion about the rule of thumb for drafting folks with low volatility? Such as, high round draft choices (1 through 3?) would be more favorable with low volatility, and lower round draft choices (5 through 7?) would benefit more from higher volatility?

This dude isn't strong enough to play the defensive line, only 22 bench reps. I bet he flops badly.

I'm with TredWel on this one. Guys with very average ceilings AND that need an extra year or two to develop, do not equal good things. I wouldn't touch the guy with a ten-foot pool.

I'll take him Run Defense and Endurance are good. He'll be a border line starter and serviceable. take him!!!!

yup. i think it really depends on what you are expecting out of him. if you want him to be a full-time every-down starter then you're probably out of luck. But for a guy to bring in on running downs, or for a team where the pass-rush comes off the edges and from the LB's, he'd be a good fit.

I've always wondered what the blue bars were.

So when drafting, what do you guys most take into account as far as telling if a player is going ot be a bust or a boom?

Do you guys realize how bad things could be while he IS playing? And don't forget that playing him is the only way to increase his ratings unless you've got a DT mentor around. Do you really want to start a guy with a current rating of 5-20 for a couple of years?

I wouldn't touch any player that had potential rating of 0-XXX. I find that most of the time that rating ends up being 0, and never goes up. Certainly not the kind of player you want playing on your team.

This was the correct answer.

"Punishing Hitter" is not very valuable and good Pass Rush Technique/Play Diagnosis often leads to good pass rush production even with low Pass Rush strength.

My main concern is his combine scores--he is going to turn into roster filler most of the time because his blue bars are a case of a bad read by my scout.

A good place to start is the combine numbers. And this guy's numbers are horrible. I wouldn't take him, I see him as a 3 year and retirement player.

I've found that guys, other than QBs, with very low current ratings are bad risks. On an average team, he won't play enough to develop much. A good team can play him, but he'd be a huge liability for at least two years.

A better option would be to pick a 20/30 guy in the draft or as a free agent if you need the roster depth at the position.

Is there an option to use different ones? Honestly I'm not sure I ever notice that they're there anyway.

I would actually take a flyer on him depending on what other needs can be addressed. First, he has solid run d and pass rush technique bars, that definitely is better than having high pass rush strength. Also, his PD and endurance are good as well. Plus, don't discount his high intelligence, his ratings will pick up much faster from playing than another player with higher current but low intelligence.

I would take a flyer on him, and use him as a back up DT who plays a fair amount (set the starter's PT to 2-3). In a year or two he should be a spot starter.

How would you bring him in on running downs?

Anyway, I could see taking him in the 5th round, but...it's the 5th round. Even if he ends up retiring after a couple years, would you really call it a bust?

Check out the reference thread... :)

Do Not
 

Take this player. His constants (Pass Rush Strength and Punishing Hitter are very low). I can find you someone who will be twice as good as him with a 30 future rating and low volatility.

In the 5th i usually look for guys that can actually break out. This guy is definately not one.

My thoughts exactly, before the draft I sort everyone by their combine numbers and look for guys that might fly under the radar, but have a very good chance at being better than I see. This guy wouldn't even be on my radar despite his bars. I have a feeling he will bust out post-draft b/f training camp even starts and then just slowly waste away the rest of his career. I wouldn't even contemplate this, take a RB here. There is usually atleast 1 that will become a very good starter down the line taken in the 5-7th rounds by someone. You just have to find him. Look @ the combine numbers, u'll find him.

I guess I'm talking more about semantics here. Is it really a "bust" if the guy doesn't break out?

I think this guy is a solid situational player. Use him on first and second down, then bring in the 3rd down specialist.

After all this talk, I think you have to take him to let us know what will happen to him.

I don't think that he is good enough to bust. I would not take him at all, unless I needed a runstopper and he was available late. I wouldn't rate him more than a 7th round pick.

I like him personally, and I think he can be a decent every-down player.