Front Office Football Central - Fantasy Football and Math

Front Office Football Central (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//index.php)

- FOFC Archive (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//forumdisplay.php?f=27)

- - Fantasy Football and Math (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=52258)

Fantasy Football and Math

Though I shudder to start a new fantasy football thread, I am not exactly sure how to go about this one, so I thought I'd ask the collective wisdom of FOFC.

My co-workers have asked me to join their fantasy football league this season, and I gladly accepted. Their scoring system is a bit different than what I am used to, however, and I'm wondering if I should change my draft strategy accordingly. Typically, I'm used to QB's getting 4 points per touchdown pass. In this league, TD Passes are worth 6 points -- the same as a rushing or receiving touchdown. This small change has me quite confounded. It seems like I should get this real easily...maybe the cold medication I'm on is confusing me, I don't know.

My gut feeling is that this should inherently make QBs worth more, and I should slide Peyton Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer et al up my draft chart a little. After all -- the extra points are going to change the differential between a top QB and a lower-tier QB to be greater, and I want to take advantage of that differential. For example --

Carson Palmer -- 3,836 Yards, 32 TD, 12 INT
Old System = 257 Points
New System = 321 Points

But some nagging part of my brain wants me to ignore it, because all QBs are just sliding up the points scale. Any ideas?

QB's are going to be worth a little more, and the best two or three probably should warrant consideration in the first two rounds.

However, top RB's are still more valuable due to position scarcity. Presumably, you need to fill two starting RB slots, while you only need to start 1 QB. Because of this, it is probably in your best interests to continue to emphasize good running backs over a very good quarterback...

Typically, my teams never have a player like Peyton Manning on them -- I am very much a fan of the draft RBs early and often. This year, however, I feel there is somewhat of a steep dropoff after the top RBs -- outside of Johnson, Tomlinson and Alexander, each back has his warts that I'm worried about. I'd throw Portis in that top tier too, but his Shoulder worries me. If I were in the 8 or 9 draft slot, I'd consider taking Manning in a traditional draft. In this new draft method, however, I think I'd be hard pressed to pass on Manning at picks 4-10.

Yes, I would take Manning (maybe even Palmer or Brady) in the first round in this format (but only starting at pick 4). After that, there isn't too much of a difference between the next tier of QBs. It is a relatively large group of potentially very productive players. You could still fill your RB needs first and snag a productive QB later on (if you don't wait too too long)

I am in a league that scores QB TD's like this also. We also get 1 point for every 50 passing yards. Here are the top 20 in scoring last season in my league. I would wait until later rounds to select a QB. Still target RB, WR, than QB. This season I would only target P Manning in the middle/late 1st round and wait on all others. You might see a run on QB's in the 3rd or 4th round but I would still select a RB or WR still. Hope this helps.

PHP Code:


		
			
NAME NFL CURRENT FFL TOT 3WK AVG 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1   

1  Alexander, Shaun  SEA .FREE AGENT. 257 47 16.06 9 24 14 12 14 11 17 26 22 - 3 31 17 10 31 13 3   

2  Johnson, Larry  KAN .FREE AGENT. 218 69 13.63 29 20 20 26 19 13 22 8 19 3 11 2 - 1 0  8 17  

3  Tomlinson, LaDainian  SDG .FREE AGENT. 211 15 13.19 10 2 3 3 5 28 10 - 31 8 1 24 12 19 32 14 9   

4  Palmer, Carson  CIN .FREE AGENT. 210 31 13.13 1 13 17 5 16 22 16 - 12 16 10 13 12 9 15 20 13   

5  Brady, Tom  NWE .FREE AGENT. 188 32 11.75 4 11 17 20 5 8 18 13 17 7 - 9 21 8 7 9 14   

6  Manning, Peyton  IND .FREE AGENT. 186 12 11.63 0  2 10 16 15 14 21 17 19 - 12 11 9 21 4 2 13   

7  Barber, Tiki  NYG .FREE AGENT. 179 51 11.19 21 6 24 15 5 8 6 17 4 16 11 3 - 12 3 16 12  

8  Bledsoe, Drew  DAL .FREE AGENT. 177 23 11.06 8 8 7 20 6 18 2 7 - 8 6 10 17 10 23 11 16   

9  Manning, Eli  NYG .FREE AGENT. 177 25 11.06 10 8 7 16 3 16 18 10 9 6 12 8 - 21 15 7 11   

10  Delhomme, Jake CAR .FREE AGENT. 169 37 10.56 11 13 13 8 11 7 4 6 8 18 - 14 14 12 19 3 8   

11  Brees, Drew  SDG .FREE AGENT. 167 18 10.44 1 8 9 19 11 4 22 - 9 18 13 7 8 12 11 3 12   

12  James, Edgerrin  IND .FREE AGENT. 164 10 10.25 0  2 8 7 11 6 16 13 11 - 18 25 13 10 12 7 5   

13  Vick, Michael  ATL .FREE AGENT. 164 19 10.25 2 14 3 23 4 12 14 21 9 - 14 8 0  6 14 8 12   

14  Hasselbeck, Matt  SEA .FREE AGENT. 163 29 10.19 1 11 17 20 5 12 8 8 13 - 8 9 14 8 4 13 12   

15  Collins, Kerry  OAK .FREE AGENT. 158 27 9.88 18 3 6 0  8 11 9 14 11 16 9 5 - 4 14 11 19   

16  Favre, Brett  GNB .FREE AGENT. 157 17 9.81 9 6 2 3 5 7 14 9 4 9 14 - 16 26 11 18 4   

17  Brunell, Mark  WAS .FREE AGENT. 155 37 9.69 6 12 19 2 7 7 3 14 4 1 17 20 14 12 - 16 1   

18  Smith, Steve  CAR .FREE AGENT. 155 29 9.69 12 0  17 5 9 2 8 1 11 16 - 14 19 0  28 1 12   

19  Feely, Jay NYG .FREE AGENT. 154 29 9.63 12 8 9 14 5 7 9 7 6 20 8 9 - 14 11 9 6   

20  Rackers, Neil ARI .FREE AGENT. 152 23 9.50 7 9 7 7 0  5 14 9 15 9 8 - 8 19 16 12 7

QBs in general account for a larger percentage of the points, but not necessarily more important than RBs (scarcity). However, it does widen the gap between the first tier QBs and the remainder; and makes someone like a Favre who throws a lot of TDs and a lot of Ints more worthwhile than perhaps normally.

I keep reading this thread title as Fantasy Football and Meth

You are right to initially think that you ought to ratchet up the value of a top QB in this league.

You are also right to be suspicious that this still isn't the best way to go. Even in established leagues, there are multi-year owners who still don't understand the basic concepts of positional scarcity -- in a couple of my money leagues, I know owners who absolutely insist on starting their draft with five seven picks that include a full starting lineup (minus a kicker) without exception -- that means waiting until at least round eight to get RB #3, which is a recipe for an 11th place finish if there ever was one.

Yes, QBs become a bit more valuable. But you still probably want to be a team who sits back and finds value at that position because it's always there, long after you have filled up your roster with reliable running backs and perhspa standouts elsewhere. I play in two money leagues with full-points for passing TDs, and this still remains the best overall strategy, I believe.