Predictions For Tomorrow
 

We did predictions earlier, but how about a quick contest to see who can pick the most correct races?

Pick the winner in these Senate races (I selected the 10 closest). The incumbent is listed first. In the absence of an incumbent, the party that is defending the seat is listed first.

Arizona - Kyl (R) vs. Pederson (D)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I) vs. Lamond (D) vs. Schlesinger (R)
Maryland - Cardin (D) vs. Steele (R)
Michigan - Stabenow (D) vs. Bouchard (R)
Missouri - Talent (R) vs. McCaskill (D)
Montana - Burns (R) vs. Tester (D)
New Jersey - Menendez (D) vs. Kean (R)
Ohio - Dewine (R) vs. Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Santorum (R) vs. Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R) vs. Ford (D)
Virginia - Allen (R) vs. Webb (D)

Tiebreaker:
How many House Seats will Dems gain (Use minus if you think they will lose)?

Here are my picks...

Arizona - Kyl
Connecticut - Lieberman
Maryland - Cardin
Michigan - Stabenow
Missouri - McCaskill
Montana - Tester
New Jersey - Menendez
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
Tennessee - Corker
Virginia - Webb

Dems +15 in House

Here it goes:

Arizona - Kyl
Connecticut - Lieberman
Maryland - Steele
Michigan - Stabenow
Missouri - Talent
Montana - Burns
New Jersey - Menendez
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
Tennessee - Corker
Virginia - Allen

Dems +16 in House

I can't resist these...

AZ - Kyl
CT - Lieberman
MD - Cardin
MI - Stabenow
MO - Talent
MT - Burns
NJ - Menendez
OH - Brown
PA - Casey
TN - Corker
VA - Webb
(RI - ends up being 2nd-closest race, but Chafee does not pull it out)

D +32 in House

Which do you think will be the closest? Virginia?


Arizona - Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I)
Maryland - Cardin (D)
Michigan - Stabenow (D)
Missouri - Talent (R)
Montana - Tester (D)
New Jersey - Menendez (D)
Ohio - Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R)
Virginia - Webb (D)

Tiebreaker:
+22

Which is the only one we called differently? Which is the one that had Bush flying across the country a few days ago? Allen is toast. Burns/Tester is the one that no one seems to have a handle on.

AZ-Kyl
CT-Lieberman
MD-Cardin
MI-Stabenow
MO-Talent
MT-Tester
NJ-Menendez
OH-Brown
PA-Casey
TN-Corker
VA-Allen

Dems +19 in House

Oh what the hell.

AZ- Kyl
CT- Lieberman
MD- Steele
MI-Stabenow
MO-Talent
MT-Burns
NJ-Menendez
OH-Brown
PA-Casey
TN-Corker
VA-Allen

I think the Dems pick up 18 seats in the House.

Oh, and not to contradict you Jim, but the last five polls in the VA race have all been within the margin of error, with the exception of the Survey USA poll that has some serious sampling errors.

Webb could very easily win, but there's no way Allen is toast.

It's just a theory, but I believe I'm getting a handle on how things move between the polls and the actual election. I'd be surprised if Webb doesn't win by 5-10 points. It needs work, though. I thought Kerry would win two years ago.

Edit... does "toast" include "yeah, it was close enough for a recount, but he still lost?"

CA: The Governator in a landslide.

Arizona - Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lamont (D)
Maryland - Cardin (D)
Michigan - Stabenow (D)
Missouri - McCaskill (D)
Montana - Tester (D)
New Jersey - Menendez (D)
Ohio - Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R)
Virginia - Webb (D)

Tiebreaker: +25

Biggest leap of faith I made was Lamont, the polls all show Lieberman with a big lead, but ballot position and Lamont's far superior ground game I think has a chance to close the lead. I feel like Schlesinger will end up more in the mid-teens range than the high single digits like he has been polling at. Like Jim said though, MT has been trending towards Burns lately, but I don't think he has enough time to close the entire gap.

Arizona - Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I)
Maryland - Cardin (D)
Michigan - Stabenow (D)
Missouri - Talent (R)
Montana - Burns (R)
New Jersey - Menendez (D)
Ohio - Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R)
Virginia - Allen (R)

Tiebreaker:
+30

AZ-Kyl
CT-Lieberman
MD-Cardin
MI-Stabenow
MO-McCaskill
MT-Tester
NJ-Menendez
OH-Brown
PA-Casey
TN-Corker
VA-Webb (Closest race)

Dems +40

Through the 10 races that have been called so far, here's where we stand (with the pick in the 11th race in brackets)...

larrymcg421 - 10 (Webb)
Fighter of Foo - 10 (Webb)
Swaggs - 9 (Webb)
Wolfpack - 9 (Allen)
chinaski - 9 (Webb)
MrBigglesworth - 9 (Webb)
Solecismic - 8 (Webb)
albionmoonlight - 8 (Allen)
Arles - 7 (Allen)
CamEdwards - 7 (Allen)

*sigh* Had to pick Allen. So close and yet so far.

9 out of 10 ain't bad. Was badly wrong on Lieberman though, can't believe the GOP guy only got 10%.