Crappy BCS analysis / prediction thread
 

I may be one of the few people who actually like the BCS, if for no other reason that we get to play with numbers and "what-if" scenarios. In this thread, I'll offer some facts, analysis, opinions, and predictions for not only the BCS Championship, but all of the BCS Bowls. I hope to keep this thread updated over the next few weeks. At the time of posting, Texas and USC were both still playing, so things could be obsolete right away.

First of all, I'll give the Crappy BCS Primer:

* Rankings determined by 1/3 Harris Poll, 1/3 Coaches' Poll, 1/3 average of six computer rankings
* National Championship pits #1 vs. #2
* Four other BCS bowls: Rose, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar
* Automatic berths for champions of ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC
* Highest ranked non-BCS conference champ gets automatic berth if in top-12 or in top-16 AND ranked above any BCS conference champ
* Notre Dame gets in if in top-8
* If berth still available, #3 gets in
* If another berth still available, #4 gets in
* Remaining berths decided by individual bowls, who may select any team in top-14 and having 9+ wins
* No conference may have more than two teams in the BCS

Bowl Tie-Ins:
* Rose Bowl - Big 10 champ vs. Pac 10 champ
* Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champ vs. at-large
* Orange Bowl - ACC champ vs. at-large
* Sugar Bowl - SEC champ vs. at-large
note: Bowls that "lose" a team to the National Championship game get first crack at selecting at-large teams

Teams still alive for automatic berths:
* ACC - Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson(? ... not sure about that one yet)
* Big East - Rutgers, Louisville, West Virginia
* Big 10 - Ohio St, Michigan
* Big 12 - Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
* Pac 10 - Cal, USC, Oregon, Wash St(?), Oregon St(?) ... have to check the scenarios
* SEC - Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
* Others - Notre Dame, Boise St ... realistically, that's probably it

Teams still alive for National Championship, and what they need to happen (my opinion only):
* Ohio St -- beat Michigan
* Michigan -- beat OSU
* Florida -- win out and hope OSU beats Michigan, or Michigan destroys OSU
* Texas -- win out and OSU beats Michigan; Florida loses; may need USC loss
* USC -- win out and OSU beats Michigan; Florida loses; may not need Texas loss
* Arkansas -- win out, and hope Florida and LSU win their other games; Michigan, Texas and USC lose
* Rutgers -- win out, crush WVU; hope OSU beats Michigan by 30+; Florida, Texas, USC, and Arkansas lose

I really don't think Notre Dame, West Virginia, or anyone else can finish ahead of the OSU - Michigan loser.

I'll make my current BCS bowl predictions after the Texas - KSU game ends.

edit: Added rule about no conference having more than two teams in BCS
edit: added BC to ACC list

OK, so scratch Texas off the NC list. ;)

As promised, here is my first crystal ball prediction for the BCS bowls.

Rose Bowl - Michigan (at-large) over Rutgers (Big East champ)
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 champ) over Boise St (at-large)
Orange Bowl - Florida (at-large) over Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas (SEC champ) over Notre Dame (at-large)
Nat'l Champ - OSU (#1, Big 10 champ) over USC (#2, Pac 10 champ)

OK, I'm going to bed, figuring I'll wake up and see USC blew it. ;) Anyone feel free to chime in with predictions, analysis, etc.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State (at-large) vs USC (Pac-10)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (Big 12) vs Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl: Wake Forest (ACC) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Orange Bowl: Arkansas (SEC) vs. Boise State (at-large)
National Championship: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

My analysis of ND vs. Arkansas:
Without having an in-depth analysis from people who've looked closely at the Razorbacks statistically, my impression of them is that they have a good running game, OK passing game, and decent defense that's been untested against the pass since the Southern Cal game where they got thumped. The only passing attack worth discussing in the SEC was Tennessee's, before Ainge got hurt, and Arkansas didn't play them, they played Tennessee after Ainge got hurt.

That suggests, to me, that ND might be a bad matchup for Arkansas. ND's biggest weaknesses on defense are accurate QBs and big plays, but a team really needs to have multiple weapons to keep the Irish from scheming to take away the one player and I'm not sure Arkansas can do that -- witness ND shutting down Calvin Johnson in the second half of the GT game, although how much of that was ND and how much was GT ineptitude is open to question. Meanwhile, the one team that's beaten Arkansas is one with an accurate quarterback and a multidimensional passing attack -- exactly what the Irish would bring to the table.

(Outside of the top two teams, the team in the BCS mix that would really scare me right now is Rutgers. I think their defense could shut down the Irish attack the same way they shut down Louisville.)

Fixed it for ya.:D

damn, if ND plays for the national championship that would be a sad sad day.

I would love to see us roll over ND in the Glendale again

Actually, I did screw it up ... Arkansas, as the SEC Champ, will go the Sugar Bowl to face WVU, and it'll be Wake Forest and Boise State in the Orange.

I would agree, but I think it'll happen.

Arkansas will beat Florida in the SEC title game, but won't bypass Notre Dame in the polls because ... well, it's Notre Dame.

USC will lose to ND, but will beat Cal and win the Pac-10.

Rutgers loses to WVU, as WVU will be hyped and they're playing in Morgantown.

Michigan beats Ohio State, and the voters will not want a rematch, so they'll put OSU to 4th.

Louisville falls out because they had their single loss too late in the season to recover in the polls.

Who does this leave? Notre Dame, who easily bypasses a 1-loss Arkansas and West Virginia for the BCS Title spot. And they'll get crushed by Michigan.

WVU, I think you're off on quite a bit. ND sucks. I agree WVU beats Rutgers thus eliminating all the Big East teams. IF OSU loses to Michigan, by 7 or less, there will definitely be a rematch. Arkansas and Florida is a little more crazy.

With all of that said, I look for an undefeated OSU team to play the winner of the SEC.

If ND runs the table they will be playing in Glendale Arizona on Jan 8.

Rose Bowl - Arkansas (SEC champ) over USC (Pac 10 champ)
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 champ) over Notre Dame (at-large)
Orange Bowl - Wake Forest (ACC champ) over Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl - Boise St (at-large) over Rutgers (Big East champ)
Nat'l Champ - Michigan (at-large) over Ohio State (#1, Big 10 champ)


The Sugar Bowl will have the 2 undefeated teams playing. Michigan, even though they lose to Ohio State next week, will be ranked #2 in the BcS and will avenge their loss on a neutral field for the 'championship'.

Maybe this will be the season that will push for a playoff system.

That's an impossible scenario. If the SEC Champ does not go to the National Title game, they have to go to the Sugar Bowl.

The Michigan-Ohio State rematch would be the scenario I thought least likely for a re-match. I always thought two teams like OU-Texas or Florida-Tennessee, two rivals who play early in the season and are in the same division of a conference with a championship would be most likely for a rematch due to the time and the impossibility for a re-match beforehand (see Miami-FSU). Michigan-OSU can't play eachother twice, but they play the last week of the season. If they do play eachother again, it will be like Oklahoma-Nebraska in the Orange Bowl in the 1970s when Nebraska made it as the Big 8 Champ and the Orange Bowl invited OU for a rematch.

No way ND should play in the NC over the Michigan/Ohio State loser.

I hate Notre Dame, but like it when they get in BCS bowl games only because they are great betting opportunities against!

OK, we can narrow down the teams still alive. With USC's win, the Pac 10 is simple ... winner of Cal vs USC on Saturday takes the conference. Clemson is, in fact, eliminated in the ACC Atlantic. I've also added Brigham Young, because there is a small chance they could sneak into the Top 16 and be ahead of the ACC champ. Georgia Tech still has to play at Georgia, and a couple of teams on th other side can still lose a game but win the division. Boise St would also have to lose and fall back so that BYU was the top-rated champion of a non-BCS conference. Yes, it's a longshot, but they are currently high enough in the polls and computers where they can make it if all hell breaks loose in front of them.

Teams still alive for automatic berths:
* ACC - Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
* Big East - Rutgers, Louisville, West Virginia
* Big 10 - Ohio St, Michigan
* Big 12 - Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
* Pac 10 - Cal, USC
* SEC - Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
* Others - Notre Dame, Boise St, Brigham Young

edit to add BC

I'll save most of my comments for the title game possibilities 'til after the new BCS rankings are out, but I wanted to point out that in the two computer rankings released so far, Rutgers has gone from 12th in both to 2nd in both, ahead of Ohio St. Wow.

WAG:

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Louisville
Orange Bowl: Maryland vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame

Championship game: Buckeyes vs. Trojans

If OU doesn't get screwed at Oregon, where do you think they'd be at right now?

I'm going to say around #7 because WVU would have fallen behind them after the loss to UL. Rutgers wouldn't have gotten ahead of them because OU wouldn't have fallen to 23 after the loss to Texas. Texas would have gone behind them after the "bad" loss to K-State. That means that OU is around #7 with three teams ahead of them guaranteed to lose at least once, meaning a possible BCS automatic at being #3 or #4 as a non-auto qualifier otherwise.

Rutgers getting some Computer Poll Love

Screw all of you...Rutgers wins it all!!!!!! :)

There are still a couple of weeks left, of course. And it's still a possibility that Texas, with their injuries, drops one to A&M. But assuming that things play out as most would predict, it'll be exactly what Stoops, the team, OU fans, and David Boren were worried about. The school would be losing millions of dollars by not getting a BCS game because of the screw up.

All the pundits bitched about Boren writing a letter about the game. But the scenario he was afraid of would come into play. For a guy that's job it is to worry about where the money goes, perhaps he wasn't simply whining afterall as so many claimed.

Now, don't misunderstand. I'm by no means saying that OU deserves to be in the title talk. Even in a somewhat watered-down season, OU is not an elite team this year. But you have to give them credit for what they've accomplished given their setbacks. At the very least, Stoops needs to be high on the list for Coach of the Year consideration.

Imagining what could of been is something we could do all day, though, I suppose. If they just would've beaten Texas... ;)

Does anybody know why the computers like Rutgers so much?

I would guess that being undefeated (while being obvious it is still somewhat overlooked) really does count.

While I can see why that would put them ahead of Florida, I'm not sure why it would put them ahead of Ohio State.

Big Ten is down this year, Ohio State didn't play the third-toughest team in conference, and their best win just lost on the road to Kansas State, while Rutgers' best win has no other losses.

Computers don't have to baseline their polls on the last week's polls, so it can look back at the whole scheme of things. A human voter is unlikely to penalize Ohio State for having their great wins like Iowa and Penn State not look as good at the end, but a formula might look at every team's season as a whole to come up with a ranking.

Boise State won't beat Rutgers. No way. I've seen them play and I tell you, Ray Rice would run through them like bad chinese food.

If they make it there, they'll win it all. Schiano is no joke and these boys are on a mission.

With the way the BCS looks today, its shaping up like the championship will have the winner of OSU/Michigan face the winner of ND/USC. That is, if WVU defeats Rutgers and USC defeats Cal, 2 things that have a definite chance of happening. Probably as close to a playoff we'll ever see in college football.

Btw, these:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

Are the rules for BCS bowls selections, including the automatic tie ins, the bowl order of selection for opponents to the auto tie-ins, etc. I recommend it being read to determine who goes where (remember the Big East Champ is treated like an at large team for selection process).

Interestingly accordingly to the rules, if USC loses to Notre Dame (and beats everyone else), they could both face each other again in the Rose Bowl, as long as the SEC Champ goes through with one win. The Rose Bowl would lose the Big 10 Champ (OSU or Michigan) as the #1 team would have first pick of replacements among qualified at large teams, and everyone wants ND, right? However, after the selection, the conferences and ND can adjust that because it would lead to ND and USC playing again... and they just may overrule the Rose Bowl.

As for at large selections, the bowls losing the #1 and #2 teams (or the Rose that could lose both) get first picks, followed by the Sugar, Orange, Fiesta (remember the Rose has tie ins for both picks).

My view (assuming USC wins out):

National Championship Game: Ohio State (#1, Big Ten Champ) vs. Southern California (#2, Pac-10 Champ)
Rose Bowl: Notre Dame (at large) vs. Florida (at large)*
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 Champ) vs. Boise State (at large)
Orange Bowl - Wake Forest (ACC Champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas (SEC Champ) vs. Michigan (at large)*

(Assumption is that the conferences and ND will not allow Michigan and ND to play again in a bowl as they have already played in the regular season)

I didn't post the at-large selection order, other than saying the bowl losing the title game participants goes first, but I did follow the order when making my picks. In my scenario, USC wins out (including a close one over Notre Dame), so the Rose Bowl loses both its teams and gets two picks. Michigan is the obvious choice, but then I think they take undefeated Rutgers, in part because Michigan and Notre Dame have already played. The Sugar Bowl goes next and gobbles up Notre Dame, who with the loss to USC may not be in the top 8 (and therefore have an automatic entry), but they still have 9+ wins and are in the top 14, so they get picked because they are Notre Dame. The Orange Bowl gladly takes SEC title-game loser Florida, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to take automatic qualifier Boise St.

I think the money that Notre Dame always brings with it may be too much for the Rose Bowl to reject. Especially since the National Championship Game a week later will be held at the Rose Bowl, and in our scenarioes, it'll be Big 10 winner vs. Pac 10 winner (ie, traditional Rose Bowl matchup), and perhaps that'll be enough to satisfy tradition and history.

Erm, it's in Arizona this year, right? The Rose bowl, I mean?

The National Championship is in Arizona this year, site of the Fiesta Bowl which will be played as normal. The Rose Bowl is still in Pasadena.

Oops... I thought it was the Rose Bowl's turn. Or was that last year's game?

Yes, the Rose Bowl hosted the title game last year. This is the first year of the rotating title game after the normal four bowls, and the order goes the sites of the Fiesta Bowl (Jan '07), Sugar Bowl (Jan '08), Orange Bowl (Jan '09), Rose Bowl (Jan '10).

BC is also still alive in the ACC. If they win out and Wake loses twice, they would win a two team tie-breaker over Maryland and get to Jacksonville to play GT.

Doh! You're absolutely correct. I was so absorbed by trying to figure out if Clemson was still alive that I completely forgot to put BC on the list, even though I knew they were. I think my mind looked at Georgia Tech in place of BC, when I was looking at three (or four) team possibilities. Thanks.

National Championship Outlook:

The biggest monkey wrench that I did not see happening when I started my initial analysis was that Kansas St would beat Texas. Not only does it eliminate Texas from consideration, but it hurt Ohio State quite a bit in the eyes of the computers. Now, the polls are obviously a bigger factor than the computers, but the computers could still make a difference. Why does this matter? Well, it opens up a debate about what scenario would be better for a team like USC, Florida, Rutgers, Notre Dame, etc ... do they want Michigan to win or Ohio State to win?

Last Saturday morning, most people would probably have said it would be better if Ohio State won. Now, I'm not so sure. Let's take a look at a few points about the computers, and then the human polls.

Michigan furthered their stranglehold on the computers, while Ohio State fell from one 1st and five 2nds to one 1st, one 2nd, three 3rds, and even a 6th, despite winning handily. In the four of the five computers Michigan leads in, that lead is substantial over #2. In the one poll Ohio State leads in, their advantage over Michigan is not very large.

The Colley Matrix has a great page, which allows you to add or remove game results to get an idea of what the rankings would look like. Currently, Michigan is #1 by quite a bit over Rutgers, who has a very small lead over #3 Ohio State. USC, Florida, and Notre Dame follow. To give you an idea of how big Michigan's lead is, the gap between them and #2 Rutgers is bigger than the gap from #2 Rutgers to #7 Louisville. Also, if you assume Michigan's win over Notre Dame never happened (as if they didn't play, not Notre Dame winning), Michigan would still be #1 in that ranking. Now, let's take the current standings and plug in an Ohio State win over Michigan (no other games assumed). OSU moves up to #1, but Michigan only drops to #2. Conversely, plug in a Michigan win, and while they stay #1, Ohio State falls from #3 to #6, behind USC, Florida, and Notre Dame. If you assume that this example is somewhat representative of all of the computers, an Ohio State win might still leave Michigan in a strong position, while a Michigan win might drop Ohio State too far for them to have any chance at a rematch. Remember that the computers only make up 1/3 of the BCS ranking. However, that's enough for a scenario in which OSU falls to #2 in both human polls, but if the computers drop them to, say, 4th or 5th, they get passed by another one-loss team in the BCS. An Ohio St win *may* only drop Michigan to 2nd or 3rd in most computers, which would not necessarily be enough to hurt them if they are #2 in the human polls.

Speaking of the human polls, although we never know what they're going to do, the Texas loss gives Michigan another edge. They still have a strong case that if they lose, they should at least be ranked ahead of Notre Dame, even if the Irish win out. Ohio State had a similar cushion with Texas. However, if Ohio State loses, what arguments do they have to stay ahead of a Notre Dame or USC, Florida or Arkansas, Rutgers, etc.?? Their only "quality" win lost a little of its luster. Michigan's wins over Notre Dame and Wisconsin might give them a better chance to stay near the top of the polls. Finally, since the game is at Ohio State, voters might not punish a Michigan loss as much as an Ohio State loss.

So, to make a long story short, I'm starting to think USC, Florida, Rutgers, etc., might want to root for Michigan on Saturday.

Wow... very good and thorough analysis. I'm impressed. It all falls to the human polls in the end, as you said, and who knows what crazy crap they are going to do. Though with the computers it seems Michigan winning is better for avoiding a UM-OSU matchup.

The craziness in my life hasn't allowed me to keep this updated as I would have liked, but before the final BCS rankings come out, I wanted to look at the computers and see how Florida and Michigan might compare. I'm guessing the voters will have them fairly close. Remember, the BCS points from the human polls are based on the percentage of total votes, not the rank. So, it doesn't matter so much who is #2 and #3, but how the total votes pan out. In my view, the likelihood that the human polls are close enough so that the computers could make the difference is high. For the computer component, the BCS treats each computer ranking like one human voter, throws out the highest and lowest one for each team, and averages the other four rankings.

Going into the week, this is how Florida and Michigan stood in the various rankings, as well as my total guess as to what will happen:

Anderson - Hester: Mich #3, Flor #4, but very, very close -- I think the Florida win will propel them to #2 behind OSU, and Michigan will be #3 (USC was #2)

Billingsley: Mich #2 (301.5), Flor #4 (287.4) -- Billingsley system makes it hard for teams to make big jumps in the rankings. I don't think Florida's win will vault them over Michigan ... 14 points seems too much to make up. For example, USC gained a little less than 8 points for beating #6 Notre Dame last week. Arkansas was ranked #14 in his system this week, so I can't see Florida getting above Michigan. My guess, Mich #2, Flor #3.

Colley: Flor #3, Mich #4 -- Colley's website lets you input up to 5 results and see how the ratings would change. OF course, this does not allow you to input ALL of the games of the week, which all have an impact. However, after putting in the results of the UCLA, Florida, Oklahoma, WF, and WVU wins, Florida jumps to #1, over OSU. Michigan is #3. Due to the relatively small number of other D-1 games, and the fact that Florida's lead over OSU and Michigan in that scenario is big enough, I'll assume those will be the results.

Massey: Flor #3, Mich #4 -- Massey's ratings weight recent performance more, so the Florida win might allow them to make a bigger jump. Plus, Arkansas was rated #6 coming into the game, so that should help out qute a bit. Michigan's biggest wins were early in the year. I'm not exactly sure if Florida will be able to jump OSU for 1st, but it could be very close. For the sake of this exercise, I'll assume Florida WILL move to #1, with Michigan moving up to #3 behind OSU.

Sagarin: Mich #2, Flor #4 -- Michigan had a decent lead over Florida, and Sagarin didn't have Florida's schedule coming into this week ranked as highly as most of the other rankings. So, I'm not sure if the SEC title will vault Florida over Michigan here. Mich #2 and Flor #3.

Wolfe: Mich #2, Flor #4 -- Again, Michigan seemed to have a big enough lead on Florida to stay ahead of them. Last week's win by #3 USC over then #4 Notre Dame still left USC quite a bit behind Michigan, so I don't think Florida's win over #8 Arkansas will give them a big enough boost. We'll say Mich #2 and Flor #3.

So, based on my guesses, we'll have:
Michigan -- 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2 -- so, 0.940 for BCS computer component
Florida -- 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 3 -- so 0.950 for BCS computer component

Again, these are just my guesses. If it works out this way, Michigan could lose some ground to Florida in the human polls (based on current standings), and still end up #2. So, how many people will be like Craig James and vault Florida over Michigan on their ballot?

The only update so far is that Sagarin's ratings have been released. Florida gained on Michigan, but did not pass them. OSU, Michigan, Florida.

Florida isn't going to take Michigan in the computers because of Arkansas' loss to LSU. The voters are simply going to have to vault Florida ahead of Michigan to get Florida to the title game. Some will, but I don't think there will be enough of them.

I predict that if Michigan gets the nod, people will clamor that Florida got robbed. I predict that if Florida gets the nod, people will clamor that Michigan got robbed. Regardless of Michigan or Florida getting the nod, there will be many letters to the editor of the Idaho Statesman claiming that Boise State was robbed.

I think Florida will get the nod, but after having watched them on back-to-back weekends there is no way in hell they are the second best team in the nation.

And of course everyone will already know who got robbed the most: Notre Dame. Not only should they be playing in the big game but should already be declared the winner.

Looks like Florida gets the number two ranking in the Coaches' Poll...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/colle...l/usatpoll.htm

Funny that Tresell abstained.