| MartinD |
04-22-2007 02:42 PM |
Volatility indicates the likely range that a player's ratings could end up in once he develops - low volatility means that the player's ratings will end up somewhere in a fairly narrow range, with high volatility meaning that those final ratings are a lot more uncertain. In other words, high volatility means higher risk (but with greater potential for reward).
What's already been said (low volatility is good for quality players, high volatility for guys who don't look all that good right now) is fair enough, but you also have to consider the flip side - a good player with high volatility has a chance to be a really good player (although you also have to consider the risk that he's never going to reach the potential he has - in other words, this guy is the classic boom-bust player), while a lower-rated player with low volatility is more likely to end up being a solid role-player or a guy who gives your team quality depth once he develops (OK, you don't have the chance of him being much better than his initial ratings, but it's a lot less likely that he's going to provide absolutely nothing to your team...)
Of course, the above paragraph has to be taken in context, given that (IMHO) one of my main strengths as a FOF GM/coach is finding ways to get decent production out of late round picks and free agents. I am perfectly happy for lots of other GMs to go after the big risk-reward guys late in the draft while I take my pick from the guys who are going to be solid journeymen pros :cool:
Martin
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