KY Derby 2007 Official Prediction Thread
 

Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and Curlin. Irwin M. Fletcher, you choose.

My people keep telling me Street Sense, Street Sense. So that's my pick.

My first Derby as a KY resident. My TV will be closer to Louisville than ever before!

What's up with that "$1,000,000 to anyone who wins by 7 or more lengths" challenge sponsored by one company or another?

It's like they have people out there asking themselves "What's a nice traditional moment in American Sports that we haven't yet cheapened with corporate gimmicks? We've pretty much saturated the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, NASCAR, and the NCAA." "Oh, I know, the Kentucky Derby! Brilliant!"

Never even heard of this until now. Thanks for cheapening it jerky!

What better Ken Phelps or Street Sense

Barbaro will finish dead last.

The KY Derby? I had one of those last month during my physical. The doctor won - I lost.

Barbaro tributes, retrospectives, and stories about his siblings will likely finish miles ahead of any other stories, though.

come on. you know it was a win win.

Mooooooon River!

BTW, I'll say hi to the Queen if I see her around town. Although officially no one will say where she is staying, she typically stays at former British Ambassador Will Farish's Lane's End Farm here in Versailles. He's providing her tickets to the Derby, and locally, I've heard she'll be staying here.

What are the odds that the female horseback reporter who interviews the winning jockey asks whether he was thinking of Barbaro as he won the race?

I'm going with "Ginn's A Bust." I think he's the number 9 horse.

Curlin. He's got the stones for this race.

I am going to bet on the bay.

I'm liking Street Sense and Nobiz Like Shobiz right now. I was looking at Great Hunter before hand, but with a 20 post position, I'm not anymore.

Come on, "Kentucky Derby 2007 Prediction Thread" wouldn't fit? :)

I have liked most everything about CIRCULAR QUAY since last fall, and he put in the most visually impressive effort I have seen this year. I am not wild about the eight-week layoff, but I trust that his trainer (who has won lots and lots of races of late) knows what he's doing and knows his horse. Not sure how I'll be populating the exotics, but he's my pick this year for the top spot.

Horse/Trainer/Jockey/Morning Line

1 Sedgefield /Darrin Miller/ Julien Leparoux/ 50-1
2 Curlin/ Steve Asmussen/ Robby Albarado/ 7-2
3 Zanjero /Steven Asmussen /Shaun Bridgmohan/ 30-1
4 Storm In May /William Kaplan/ Juan Leyva /30-1
5 Imawildandcrazyguy/ William Kaplan /Mark Guidry /50-1
6 Cowtown Cat /Todd Pletcher/ Fernando Jara/ 20-1
7 Street Sense /Carl Nafzger /Calvin Borel/ 4-1
8 Hard Spun /J. Larry Jones /Mario Pino /15-1
9 Liquidity/ Doug O'Neill /David Flores/ 30-1
10 Teuflesberg /Jamie Sanders /Stewart Elliott /30-1
11 Bwana Bull/ Jerry Hollendorfer/ Javier Castellano/ 50-1
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz /Barclay Tagg /Cornelio Velasquez /8-1
13 Sam P. /Todd Pletcher/ Ramon Dominguez /20-1
14 Scat Daddy /Todd Pletcher /Edgar Prado/ 10-1
15 Tiago/ John Shirreffs/ Mike Smith/ 15-1
16 Circular Quay/ Todd Pletcher/ John Velazquez /8-1
17 Stormello/ William Currin/ Kent Desormeaux/ 30-1
18 Any Given Saturday/ Todd Pletcher /Garrett Gomez /12-1
19 Dominican /Darrin Miller/ Rafael Bejarano /20-1
20 Great Hunter /Doug O'Neill /Corey Nakatani /15-1

This made me laugh. It is funny, because it's true.

Even money it happens.

Is the KY Derby a porno? And if so, I don't think I want to know the details.

Watch out if the track comes up sloppy.

It started raining here yesterday and is forecast to continue through early Saturday. Should be cleared up for the race, but it's possible the track will have 3-4 solid days of wetness leading up to the race.

that's hot

The track enjoys foreplay, what can you do?

Well, in the off chance that there are any horseracing fans here...


Anyone else intrigued by HARD SPUN here? He blew out a 5f workout in 57 3/5, which is the fastest workout I think I have ever seen for Derby week, even faster than OLD TRIESTE a few years back. With 5 days to recover, I'm not worried that he overworked -- just affirmed that he is in great shape and covering this track beautifully. If you put stake in workouts for this race, that was an eye popper. (Apparently STREET SENSE has looks fabulous as well)

So...HARD SPUN might have as much early speed as anyone in this whole field (who else here? SEDGEFIELD on the rail? SCAT DADDY? STORMELLO? maybe TEUFELSBERG?) and looks like he has a great shot to at least get part of the early lead.. maybe sitting on SEDGFIELD's shoulder. I think he has enough gas to go tha full route here, and if he's in as good form as his works suggest, he might make a nice value play at anything like the morning line of 15-1.

I think that theory probably builds its own ticket for me... HARD SPUN runs away and can't be caught, and the best of the rest from off the pace a bit fill in the ticket underneath him:

8 / 7, 15 / 2, 6, 7, 12, 15

There's a nice, simple $8 trifecta ticket.

Kent Desuckmo will have an interesting decision from outside with Stormello. That would the main danger pace wise to hard spun.

good analysis though. i like to bet on these types rather than the plodding closers.

When we went to Keeneland on the 22nd, I didn't place any bets. We went mainly to enjoy the weather and let the girls see some horses. But one of the races Desormeaux ran, we were trying to figure out which horse would be the best bet, and his horse had odds of like 8-1, so I told my wife, "When all else fails, I'd go with the horse whose jockey I've at least heard of." And he won. I should have bet on him.

sucka! stick to bat shit!

How much money would I have had to wager on Desormeaux's horse to pay for the removal of 3,500 pounds of bat shit?

2/3 of a half pence

Wait a sec..do the math for me? I am not following this as an $8 tri.

8/7/2,6,12,15 = $4
8/15/2,6,7,12 = $4

$8 Trifecta.

The intuitive answer to your implied question is that since I am invariably using either the 7 or the 15 in the second spot, it's not fair to count all five options in the third spot (since one of them is always taken up by the second spot). So, the number of bets isn't 1x2x5 = 10 (as I would speculate you're thinking) but rather 1x2x4 = 8.

How's that?

That is what I was thinking, on just the "fly by" of a glance when I asked the question. After I went back and looked at it again, it made sense. That second spot was throwing me a little.

I think that while there is no super speedster in this race, there are enough horses that will want the front. Sedgefield's early turn of hoof is on the turf not the dirt so he will not go to the top, so I think that either Hard Spun, Liquidity, or Stormello will make the front by default (Liquidity being slightly faster to the 1st call) with Curlin sitting in a pretty choice spot. The jock is going to have to gun Stormello (who likes the front) to put that one in any position to win from the 17 hole, so that will compromise that horse's chances plus any others that decide to fight for the lead.

Betting-wise I will be playing exactas and trifectas, but I have not put any tickets together yet. However, if I had to pick the winner I would put my money on Any Given Saturday. There are two substantial negatives with this one -- the 18 post and the fact that the horse likes to run wide which tends to cost him victories. As nearly all horses will get bad trips in the Derby I think that his positives will outweigh the negatives -- he's bred to go long, bred for an off-track, ran a very nice race on 11/25/06 at CD so he likes the track, has a strong foundation for the 1 1/4 miles, and I think that Pletcher will have him ready.

Good luck to all.

Pletcher put the go rider on Circular Quay though. Not sure what that means.

Todd Pletcher has never had a horse win the Kentucky Derby. I think that he was a D. Wayne Lukas assistant trainer at one time and may have been involved with prepping horses for this race, but as a head trainer he has not won it.

I don't think I like any of the horses likely to be on the pace, I'm looking more towards one of the contenders to lay back about 4-5 lengths. There is about 10 contenders it seems, but right now besides Street Sense and Curlin I am kinda interested in Great Hunter and Sam P. I like Circular Quay but I have big traffic concerns with 20 horses.

(Friday betting doesn't always point the way, but tends to show the right direction, at least...)

Kentucky Derby odds
By MARTY McGEE

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With $371,212 bet into the win pool, Street Sense was the 9-2 favorite for the 133th Kentucky Derby as of 7 p.m. Eastern on Friday. Scat Daddy was a slight second choice over Curlin, with both being 6-1, while Hard Spun was the fourth choice at 10-1, followed by Tiago, also at 10-1. Stormello, at 48-1, was the longest longest shot in the field of 20.

Advance Derby odds

1, Sedgefield, 46-1

2, Curlin, 6-1

3, Zanjero, 34-1

4, Storm In May, 20-1

5, Imawildandcrazyguy, 18-1

6, Cowtown Cat, 18-1

7, Street Sense, 9-2

8, Hard Spun, 10-1

9, Liquidity, 46-1

10, Teuflesberg, 44-1

11, Bwana Bull, 35-1

12, Nobiz Like Shobiz, 12-1

13, Sam P., 47-1

14, Scat Daddy, 6-1

15, Tiago, 10-1

16, Circular Quay, 14-1

17, Stormello, 48-1

18, Any Given Saturday, 21-1

19, Dominican, 17-1

20, Great Hunter, 26-1

To me, this looks like a scrambled field -- odds on both of the top two head up, a few of the next tier head down. STREET SENSE at anything more than 4-1 is probably an overlay, in my view. I still back CIRCULAR QUAY, and if he indeed drifts up well into double digits, I'll be thrilled. Seeing some horses I am basiaclly tossing (SCAT DADDY and CURLIN) down among the lowest numbers is good, regardless.

I sent out my trifecta earlier today to friends, and it remains central to my bet:

16 CIRCULAR QUAY (ML 8-1, now 14-1)
7 STREET SENSE (ML 4-1, now 9-2)
18 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (ML 12-1, now 21-1)

I am still going to have a few tickets that include HARD SPUN, but candidly, he looks like a "now" horse with the odds down to 10. I can't explain the surprisingly heavy early action on the #4 and #5 horses, other than it's Oaks day and they are both greys, as I recall. *shurg*

At 47-1, Sam P. will get a flyer from me.

My current thinking on trifecta is: 2, 7, 18/2, 7, 13, 18, 20/12, 13, 16, 18, 20.

I'm pretty sure that will change some though.

Had an interesting experience tonight...my daughter's softball game was canceled due to the weather, so we decided to go into Lexington for dinner and noticed a slew of cop cars dotting Versailles Rd from Versailles to Lexington. As we got near Man O' War Blvd by the airport, we came to a complete standstill. Turns out the Queen was arriving in town, on the way to Versailles to Lane's End Farm. So we got a front-row seat to watch the entourage drive by. Pretty cool.

It's possible that I will change, but here are my exacta/trifecta part wheels:

7,12,18 / 3,7,12,16,18 / 3,7,12,16,18

The more I look, the more I like Any Given Saturday esp. if the track remains sloppy.

If I were a horse, I'm not sure I'd want to win this race. The last one to win the Derby is pushing up roses the wrong way right now. Coincidence? I think not.

Mortality aside, I'm going with Scat Daddy.

Nice job coming from behind by Street Sense and WildAndCrazy... they were what, 19-20 after the first 1/4, 1/3 mile?

My correctly picking the winner, given QS' knowledgeable explanation of his pick, must seem like a 5-year old picking the SB champ based on uniform color by comparison.

It was a very good race by the winner, and I am not really surprised to see him take the top spot... but from the limited replay NBC gave us, it does look like he *really* got an easy trip along the inside, as Calvin Bo-rail rode along the rail as always and got horse after horse to just drift out of his way leaving his lane wide open. Not an excuse, and I think the most talented colt won today (which is not always the case in the KD), but that certainly helped him to have as much left in the tank by the time he finally got to the front.

Hats off to STREET SENSE, well done. A saving exacta for me kept me from a zero, but my pick only managed to rally up to 6th place, and I have no idea if there was any storyline there.