Presidential Election Poll - One month to go
 

Time for FOFC's presidential race tracking poll. Here are the two previous polls:

Presidential Election Poll - less than three months to go - Front Office Football Central

Presidential Election Poll - Two months to go - Front Office Football Central

3rd party, maybe. I may just leave it blank.

It will be interesting to see if any of the undecided (or previously committed) have shifted... and if so, why?

As much as I hate Democrats and their platform because I'm surrounded by idiots parroting their line, every time I re-expose myself to the Republican side I'm reminded I hate them just as much. Plus even with the Obama v. McCain difference on military matters, Joe Biden as VP should shore up support for military interventions and negate the anti-war wing of the D party and Sarah Palin is a complete joke for anything beyond electability. Add on the bailout plans, and I've switched from deciding between McCain and 3rd party to voting for Ron Paul and the Libertarians if I vote. Yes, 90% of his positions are insane, but the other 10% are phenomenal and we need more voices/options on the national political scene. Besides, I live in Massachusetts, so it doesn't matter who I vote for.

I may end up voting Obama since North Carolina polling is showing a shockingly close race, but I'd really rather throw my support away from the two major parties.

Its going to come down to whether or not North Carolina remains a close battleground state, and exactly how terrible the concept of McCain, or heaven forbid Palin, putting new judges on the Supreme Court ends up sounding to me.

My vote doesn't count either since I vote in California, but I'll vote for Mccain anyway. You win some and you lose some. This will most definately be a loss, I see. :)

So do FOFC members vote in significantly higher numbers than Americans as a whole or do the people on FOFC that don't give a shit just not click on this thread? Hmm.

I am going to vote for McCain; I've been an admirer of him for a long time, going back to before his first presidential campaign. The most important issue for me is foreign policy, and his views are much closer to mine than Obamas.

+1

I was previously 'definitely will not vote', but i finally got off my ass and registered and expect to vote for the first time in my life.

The last few months haven't changed your mind at all?

No.

I shifted from a lean to a definite Obama vote.

I'm still not a fan of the personality cult and don't think he'll be the great changer or anything... but if Sarah Palin ever becomes President, I -will- move out of the country.

I don't know what percentage of FOFC members actually vote, but politically, this site seems to be about 20 points to the left of the general voting public.

I think they managed to block Barr off the ballot in our state(PA). McCain just turns my stomache, he's had way too long to convince me to vote for him. I just can't do it. I'll either not vote, or cast an Obama vote. Electing McCain is going to do absolutely nothing to shake the status quo of the elected republican base. I hope they lose 20% of their congressional seats this election. This "compassionate conservative" socialistic bigger gubment warmonger party must be stopped at all costs. Even if we have to watch Alfred E. Neuman run shit for 4-8 years

Looking back on Kodos' 2004 polls, I'm surprised that Kerry had a narrow edge among FOFC, although that support was weak -- many chose the "lesser of two evils" option.

My guess would be that the average FOFCer is a 30-something white male living in a suburban community and more affluent than the average household. Based on the demographics, FOFC would be expected to tilt conservative. My recollection is that in 2000 the board tilted much more Republican.

I can't give a good reason why this board is tilting so heavily Obama compared to a typical national poll, especially when the demographics favor him. My most logical guess would be that Obama is performing very well with under-30 voters and that's what is putting him over the top here.

Using my own impressions from years on this board, out of the 88 votes so far, I would classify between 17 and 21 as conservative. The fact that McCain gets 16-19 votes seems about right.

Here was a poll back in 2004:

Front Office Football Central - View Poll Results

In that list, I would say closer to 30 people are "conservative" - Kerry got about 55%, Bush got 37% and 7.7% went indy. Now, we are at 60 for Obama, 21 for McCain and 16% indy. My guess is slightly more left-leaning people have joined the forum in the past 4 years and many of the 38 that voted for Bush in 04 probably voted for McCain in 08 (many haven't voted here). But I don't see any indication of a massive shift of people from Bush to Obama.

If the 15-20 conservatives from 2004 came back and voted, we would be right back at 55-37ish this election. You'd have a few like Jon who are sitting it out, but most would vote McCain. Right now, it just seems that the political spectrum of the "new" FOFC active posters has shifted left by about 15% since 2004.

As one who's been around since the bad old political days I've been satisfied to see the shift. I remember the days of being one of the very few voices against the Iraq war and watching the shift towards the Bush administration's policies being some grim ones around here. This used to be a Conservative-dominated board (going by political discussions). And not that any of us who were on the right side of history get a gold star or anything, but it's satisfying. I really hope we get it right this time.

Right? As in correct? In what way?

I think I would be careful about classifying anything as "right" in a right/wrong way when it comes to political decisions.

I still think history will be kind to Dubya and the decision to invade Iraq...

I'd say without equivocation that I was probably the most 'right' about what would happen if we went to war in Iraq of anyone on this board. Someone had to be, anyway. Didn't get me much, but I'm hopeful that we're at a turning point for good things to happen.

Here's how the 2004 posters breakdown in this poll:

54 For Bush in 2004:
9 went for McCain, 3 3rd party

78 for Kerry in 2004:
17 went for Obama, 1 for McCain, 2 3rd party

Maybe on the decision, but not his management of the war after making that decision. Honestly, if I supported the decision to invade Iraq, I'd probably hate Bush more than I do right now. As for the rest of his presidency, history certainly isn't going to judge him kindly on the economy (right or wrong), or Katrina.

Yeah agreed.

The war management has been horrible

I think that was the conclusion I came to as well in the big Obama-Mccain thread. That being, the numbers of college grads and post-grads may account for some of the demographic shift towards the liberal end of the spectrum.

When you're talking about partisan affiliation, don't forget that a lot of FOFC's conservatives seem to be more of the old-style small-government, fiscal conservative, social moderate, quasi-libertarian Republicans. I'd imagine the policies and results of the last 8 years, plus McCain's move to the social right, plus the selection of Palin, has more of these folks sitting out, being weak McCain supporters, or even switching to Obama, than was ever going to be the case in 2004.

Interesting thing about the results in this thread. If you include leaners, he's at 59%. That's about 8-9 points higher than he is in most national polls. McCain's numbers with leaners are 24%, and that's about 21 points lower than he is polling nationally

So FOFC is certainly tilted to Obama, but it is even more wildly tilted away from McCain.

Which would support my hypothesis that most right-of-center FOFCers are fiscal conservative/social moderate types. McCain and the GOP have abandoned this group this election cycle.

Let's put it this way - I really wish there was a viable 3rd alternative.

I have always said I am voting 3rd party in these. I have changed to leaning towards Obama, but undecided.

This is because I seriously hate Palin so much that I may vote for Obama just to do what i can to make sure she is not the Vice President of the United States. Hell, I hate George W. Bush and would vote for him over Palin if I could.

Bunk Moreland: I'm just a humble motherfucker with a big-ass dick.
Lester Freamon: You give yourself too much credit.
Bunk Moreland: Okay then. I ain't that humble.

There were at least 4 sections to the Iraq War
-Invasion+Immediate Aftermath: Advantage Hawks
-CPA/Bremer era: Huge Advantage Doves
-Height of Sectarian Violence/Beginning of Sunni Awakening: Advantage Doves wide-scale, advantage Hawks small-scale
-Promotion of Petraeus/Odierno/switch in tactics (Moving outside the wire): Huge Advantage Hawks

We can also throw in al-Qaeda's concentration on Iraq as the central battleground, and its probable corresponding drop in the risk of an attack on American soil as well as the widespread discrediting of al-Qaeda across the Muslim world.

I'm not a big fan of either candidate. I think the McCain Palin ticket is terrible, and I think the Obama-Biden ticket, while better than Gore/Lieberman or Kerry/Edwards, is only inspiring to me by comparison.


I might not even vote. I don't know yet. I know that not voting is supposed to be terrible, and I lose the right to complain...but why would anyone vote for something or someone they didn't feel strongly for?

The question I have is the idea of McCain "moving" to the social right. He's always been there. I just think the perception of him, based on bucking his party on campaign finance and immigration was that he was something of a Olympia Snowe type. I even ran into a Democratic poster at another site (who I consider to be an intelligent person) saying that McCain was pro-choice in 2000 and that was one of the things he changed on... I almost fell out of my chair!

^^ Yeah, that's what I meant, Isiddiqui. I wasn't clear enough. I know he's always been pretty conservative on social issues, but I think most would agree that he's become more rhetorically strident about his social conservative views since he began running for this election.

The volte-face on Robertson/Falwell must be indicative of something.

Ah, I was actually referring to Ronnie_Dobbs, who was quoting you :). It was he who said if it was the "McCain of 2000".


Well yes, he realizes at some point he has to win. And might as well highlight his social conservative views in order to get the religious right to hold their noses (at least) as opposed to adamantly opposing you.

I do wonder if people have forgotten all the shit McCain was getting in the primaries from Limbaugh, Coulter, and their ilk.

And he got his clock cleaned ;). Obama has said he's not the type to go negative (post-partisan and all that), and lo and behold, he's going negative. It's just politics. Once you get elected then you can be who you want to be.

Yeah, I'm a Republican Main Street Partnership guy. Definitely support Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, Christine Todd Whitman type policies. The funny thing is that John McCain is a member of the Republican Main Street Partnership as well, along with other moderate groups like the Republicans for Environmental Protection, and, of course, the Gang of 14.

I was never under any delusion about McCain's social conservatism. That's why I'm surprised people think he won't appoint a pro-life Justice when there is an opening. Like it or not, Roe v. Wade will be ended under a McCain presidency.

I've never really bought that line anyway. If you hate every candidate, including the third party guys, the "minor" candidates that ran in the primaries, etc. -- a perfectly reasonable opinion in my view -- then complain away.