NFL Week 16
 

Here is a poll to see who you think wins in the two bigg NFL 1 vs. 2 matchups in the AFC AND nfc.

How do you add a poll again?:banghead:

First, you cut a hole in the box.

lol smartass:)

More like NFL Week FAIL, amirite!?

Ssibalnom!

You can still edit the first post and add a poll.

I think he took his poll and went home.

You got to love that Giants-Panthers game, where the winner clinches home field advantage in the playoffs.

NFL Playoffs clinch scenarios for week 16:

AFC
1 Tennessee Titans 12-2
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3
3 New York Jets 9-5
4 Denver Broncos 8-6
5 Indianapolis Colts 10-4
6 Baltimore Ravens 9-5
7 Miami Dolphins 9-5
8 New England Patriots 9-5
10 San Diego Chargers 6-8

The Houston Texans can't get past Indianapolis or Baltimore on whatever possible scenario, thus are eliminated.

Tennessee Titans
*clinched division and bye week
*clinch homefield advantage with win
*stay alive for homefield advantage with loss or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers
*clinched division and bye week
*need win or tie to stay alive for homefield advantage

New York Jets
*cannot clinch division in week 16
*cannot be eliminated for division title with a loss

Denver Broncos
*clinch division with win or tie or San Diego loss or tie

Indianapolis Colts
*clinch wild card with win
*clinch wild card with tie + NY Jets loss or tie + Miami loss or tie
*clinch division with Miami loss + NY Jets loss


NFC
1 New York Giants 11-3
2 Carolina Panthers 11-3
3 Minnesota Vikings 9-5
4 Arizona Cardinals 8-6
5 Dallas Cowboys 9-5
6 Atlanta Falcons 9-5
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5
8 Philadelphia Eagles 8-5-1
9 Chicago Bears 8-6
10 Washington Redskins 7-7

The Washington Redskins are just barely alive for the last wild card (the first wild card is out of reach due to the remaining Dallas-Philadelphia game). They need to win their last two games, need both Tampa Bay and Atlanta to loss their last two, Chicago to loss one of their last two (or tie both) and need Philadelpia or Dallas to fall behind them in the divisional standings.

The New Orleans Saints can't get finish better than 3rd inside their division while the Dallas-Philadelphia game puts the NFC East runners-up out of reach, thus the Saints are eliminated.

New York Giants
*clinched division
*clinch home field advantage with win
*clinch bye with tie or Minnesota loss or tie

Carolina Panthers
*clinch division with win or tie or Atlanta loss or tie + Tampa Bay loss or tie
*clinch home field advantage with win
*clinch bye with tie or Minnesota loss or tie

Minnesota Vikings
*clinch division with win or tie + Chicago loss or tie or Chicago loss
*are alive for bye week
*are eliminated from home field advantage due to Giants-Panthers game

Arizona Cardinals
*clinched division

I'm not sure if anyone else has said it, but I like the work you put into those playoff scenarios, MijB.

Or, if you just copy/paste it from somewhere, I appreciate that you do so.

w/e.

Its an odd situation for Carolina where a win clinches them the #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs in the NFC, but at the same time they have not even clinched a playoff spot yet.

Carolina has to play at the Giants and at New Orleans.

I don't know if it is a safe bet that Carolina even makes the playoffs. That isn't necessarily the easiest schedule remaining in the NFC. One interesting thing to remember is so far this year in the NFC south, every single home team has won. Carolina's season could end up riding on trying to break that trend.

dola.. I have spent a good part of this week trying to figure out what the tiebreaker would be between Atlanta and Tampa Bay if both teams win out. Anyone know? THey would have identical records, 1-1 vs each other, identical conference records and identical division records.

I'm definitely worried about an 11-5 finish.

But, to miss the playoffs would require Dallas, Atlanta, and Tampa to all three win out and finish 11-5 as well. Dallas hosts Baltimore and is at Philly, while Atlanta is at Minnesota this week. I think the odds of Carolina missing the playoffs entirely are not high at all.

If they don't win the division and have to go on the road in the first week of the playoffs, my expectations will not be very high at all.

Thanks. there's no copy and pasting here, just looking at the standings and applying scenarios and tie-breakers.

Two weeks ago I had figured Atlanta was good for a 2-2 finish. They ended up winning the Tampa Bay game that I figued they would lose, but I also figued Minnesota would be a tough game and possibly a loss as well since Atlanta has to travel up to the Vikings to play.

I really was hoping the Giants would actually win a game that I wanted them to. Every single time I actually root for the Giants they lose.. and they lost again this last week to the Cowboys when I really wanted them to win. So knowing my luck, I am pretty sure that Carolina will end up beating them too.. so you're probably right you won't have to worry about it :)

Let me double check that.

It'd come down to the "Strength of Victory"

Both teams would have finished exactly the same vs the NFC South, NFC North and AFC West, leaving only the other two games against NFC Competition in play.

Atlanta would have beaten St Louis (and lost to Philadelphia).

Tampa would have beaten Seattle (and lost to Dallas).


Currently, Seattle is 3-11, while St Louis is 2-12.

St louis plays San Francisco this week, and Atlanta in Week 17. By definition the Atlanta game would be a loss. If St Louis beats San Francisco this week, and Seattle loses out, then they'd have the same record, making Strength of Victory the same.


That would take us to the next tiebreaker, Strength of Schedule. The only other difference in the schedule is that Tampa played Dallas, while Atlanta played Philadelphia, and the division would be decided based on who has a better record between Dallas and Philly.


So it appears that the difference, while marginal, puts the tiebreakers fairly heavily in Tampa's favor.

dola, hopefully MIJB and I will come to the same conclusion, as I figured that myself and am not 100% sure I'm correct.

The key here is common games. That's the third tie-breaker after head-to-head and in-division games. After that come the in-conference games.

Inside a division, common games are basically the record in games against one entire AFC division and one entire NFC division (okay, technically in-division games are included too, but because they were already used in the previous tie-breaker, they have no value in this tie-breaker). This season that's against the AFC West (Denver etc) and NFC North (Minnesota etc).

Atlanta is currently 6-1 (+ game vs Minnesota)
Tampa Bay is 5-1 (+ games vs San Diego and Oakland)
(6-1 beats 5-1, hence Atlanta having tie-breakers right now.)

Fwiw, Carolina finished that series 7-1, so if Atlanta and Tampa Bay win out, the three (or two) will be tied there.


If teams still end up tied after these common games, we go down to the conference games. And that's where Carolina would be the unlucky third ranked team, behind Tampa Bay and Atlanta (both would be 8-4), with Carolina only 7-5.

Between Tampa Bay and Atlanta it then goes down to strength of victory. Because of the many common opponents, it will be based on the number of wins of the uncommon beaten teams. Between Tampa Bay and Atlanta that would be:
Atlanta: St Louis (week 17 opp)
Tampa: Seattle
Seattle is currently 1 win ahead of St Louis. Factor in that week 17 game and Atlanta would need St Louis to win in week 16 and Seattle to lose both their remaining games to remain tied, otherwise Tampa Bay goes ahead in the 11-5 each scenario (note that in 10-6 and 9-7 situations it would be Atlanta going first of these two).


If for some reason Atlanta and Tampa Bay are both 11-5 AND both St Louis and Seattle are 3-13, then it will go down to strength of victory.

In that case they both have one more team to root for.
Atlanta: Philadelphia
Tampa: Dallas
If Dallas wins more games than Philadelphia, Tampa Bay wins this, If Philadelphia wins more game than Dallas, Atlanta wins this. So yeah, that Philadelphia tie (counting as 1/2 win) has tie-breaker potential for Atlanta.

If that still ends up tied, well, we'll take another look at it. :D

Hey, I think we have the same conclusion, Radii!

Edit, okay, almost, it looks like you left out the common games scenario.

Thanks for all of that effort Radii and MIJB. That is good information.

Any idea what happens if Tampa, Carolina and Atlanta all end 11-5? Since they would all be 1-1 vs each other and division records would all be 4-4, it then would go to common opponents before the conference records?

Assuming they all end 11-5, it would mean also common opponents would end up 7-1 for all three teams too though.. so then conference records would be next and Carolina would lose that one?

So if all three end 11-5, it would end up being:

1) Tampa
2) Atlanta
3) Carolina?

I think Tampa has a decent change at beating San Diego, and fully expect them to beat Oakland, so I don't think 11-5 is a stretch for them at all. Carolina I could see losing 1 of the 2 games (Giants and Saints left), and wouldn't be suprised to see them lose both of them. However I have a feeling Carolina will go 1-1 and beat the Saints which would also give them the division tiebreaker over Tampa and Atlanta.

I think Atlanta should beat St. Louis, and I hope they beat Minnesota, but I don't think that it will be an easy game and wouldn't be suprised to see them lose that.

So even though my heart is hoping for Atlanta to make it.. I have a better thought that it will end up:

Carolina 12-4
Tampa 11-5
Atlanta 10-6

Which means for Atlanta to make the playoffs, they then have to beat out the Cowboys who have games left vs Baltimore and the Eagles. I wouldn't be suprised to see the Cowboys split those meaning I also have to look at tiebreaker scenerios between Dallas and Atlanta to which Dallas would win on (I think)..

So I'm not getting my hopes up.. but I sure am hoping (if that makes any sense!)

That would be the most likely order.

As I said above, Carolina would be 3rd, no matter what. Whatever happens, tie-breakers will put both Atlanta and Tampa Bay over Carolina, both in the race for 1st place and for 2nd place between the remaining teams.

1st would likely (not definately) be for Tampa Bay. Atlanta only can win the division in a three-way 11-5 tie if: Seattle loses their last two games AND St Louis wins in week 16 AND Philadelphia ends up winning more games than Dallas.

Yup. Carolina can not win a tiebreaker over either Atanta or Tampa(or over both in a 3 team tie) b/c of conference record. Caroilna beat Denver and lost to Minnesota, where both Tampa and Atlanta would have beaten Minnesota and lost to Denver, should they end up in a 3 team tie.

It is not impossible for Atlanta to win the tiebreaker over Tampa, but it would require St Louis to beat San Fran this weekend, Seattle to lose its final two games, and Philadelphia to end up with a better record than Dallas. So most likely, yeah, Tampa, Atlanta, Carolina in that order.



I don't dislike Atlanta as much as I did when Vick was QB and when I was living in Atlanta, but I will be rooting heavily for Minnesota to beat Atlanta this weekend. It would be nice to get the whole playoff birth thing out of the way at 1pm and not have to worry about Carolina possibly missing the playoffs when the Sunday night game rolls around :)

I didn't realize the Eagles had as good of a record as they did. For some reason I was thinking it was a down year for them. But at 8-5-1, it could be possible they end with a better record then Dallas. They play the redskins next and then end the season with the Cowboys.

I guess that final Eagles vs Cowboys game could be very important to my hapiness

As crazy as it is to say this about an 11-3 team I really thin this game is a must win for the Giants.

Losing three in a row will kill their confidience and mojo. You can excuse the last 2 losses, all the drama 2 weeks ago the losing on the road to a division opponent, but they need to step it up and win a big home game. If they don't the New York media is gonna be brutal and the questions will start to get worse.

Obviously they are in the playoffs either way, but for their own well being they need too prove they can win a big game with the current guys they have.

I hear ya, Lathum. The Giants can't be feeling too happy going into the playoffs with losses to likely upcoming opponents. Dallas could be the divisional opponent and Carolina would be the most likely Conference championship game hosts.

BCS rank.

Wouldn't both be eliminated by now, then? ;)

The Giants also have to play at Minnesota the last week. If the Vikes win this week and the Giants lose, the Giants will be in danger of losing that bye week to Minnesota. I agree that it might be a must win for them.

Go Steelers!

Our wonderful local affiliate is showing the stains bungles game this weekend. I'm hoping they will pull that abortion off and show the steelers titans game, but I'm not holding my breath.

Dear god, I forgot that the Cowboys are playing on Saturday. My wife's boss is having his annual Christmas party on Saturday. Of course, last year he had the Giants-Pats game on in the back room, so hopefully I'll be able to sneak away and catch most of the game...

You have 3 days to find her a new job.

This week we get to find out how Detroit finds a way to screw up against a team that is 1-6 on the road and isn't trying to get into the playoffs anymore.

Dolphins just need to win two more for the division. Alternate scenarios is going 1-1, and the Pats and Ravens both lose 2.

The Pats need either the Dolphins or Jets to lose this week to have a shot at the divisiion. Then they need the team that doesn't lose (if only one does) to win in week 17. And of course, they need to win both of their games.

Pats also get in by winning out and the Ravens losing one.

Interesting.

"
Why are so many players being placed on Injured Reserve now?

This is a time when teams shelve players with, ahem, season-ending injuries. With two weeks left, teams know the league is not going to scrutinize these injuries too closely.

The primary reason for so many IR placements now – yesterday the Lions and Jaguars each put three players on the list – is so teams can take a look at younger players, especially players on their practice squads. Practice-squad players are going to be free agents in a few weeks, so this is an effective way to sign them now before they become available to every team. And by signing these players, teams will have their exclusive rights for three years at bargain-basement prices.

Further, players signed now will not receive a minimum salary credit for 2008. Thus, a player signing for the 2008 first-year minimum of $295,000 will only make the 2009 first-year minimum of $310,000 next year. This is a common practice by NFL teams, bringing up players at the end of the season for little to no financial risk and saving themselves a minimum salary credit for 2009 in the process.

Finally, vested veterans that are released at this time may not even choose to file for termination pay with only two games’ salary left. Termination pay can only be claimed once in a career, so players released this week and next must think seriously before taking that claim on 2008 salary for fear they may miss out on a bigger windfall later in their career."

I just hope my beloved Cards actually start playing like a playoff team rather than what they did against the Vikings last week. Of course they have to travel to New England so the likelihood of them playing well is not good.

I actually think as long as the weather cooperates, this is the perfect game for Arizona to get confidence from. New England is a playoff contending team (ie: no pushover) that just has a horrendous secondary and all kinds of matchup issues with Arizona's receiving crew. If there was a team out there that could help Arizona's confidence before the playoffs, it would be a team like New England.

Looks like there will be a chance of snow for the Cards-Pats game as well.

Even if you mean wild card in the last line, I don't think that's right - NE and Baltimore could both win out and leave the Colts at home if they lose 2 straight, or go 0-1-1.

great, just great

If not the offense I'm worried about against New England, its the defense. They have just completely fallen off the cliff defensively in recent weeks and I'm not sure why as they have no real major injuries. So they likely will score a lot-like they did in the Jets game after being embarrassed early on, but still lose.

But in that scenario and with the Dolphins and Jets losing it gives the Patriots the East and Indy get the 2nd wild card behind Baltimore.

Aaaah, right you are Sir. :redface:

For Lathum:

Woohoo! Johnnie Lee is going to get his first start on Sunday!

Injuries force wide receiver Higgins into Raiders' spotlight

(That was for you, RA)