Guaranteed - Kyle Boller will be a star
 

In the last week or so Mel Kiper has started saying that Kyle Boller is overrated and that he will be a bust, all but assuring that he will be a star quarterback in the NFL.

Yes, his less than 50% completion percentage tell you you're right.

anyone taking Boller over Leftwich shouldn't be an NFL GM.

I betcha he goes to Jacksonville.

This week's Sports Weekly talks about how he'd fit into Baltimore's scheme.

Boller has a very poor stat line. His first three years at Cal were marred by a poor team, poor coaching, and numerous sacks. THink David Carr like hits for 3 years. He finally got a decent cast around him, a good coach, and was able to stay healthy long enough to do something

I totally agree. He has the physical skills, but he needs to have a very solid QB coach.

His first three years at Cal, the team was terribly unorganized (and I don't know about the QB coach, but the overall coaching was poor). I would look at him like he's only had one year of college QB ... i.e. he'll need some skills work (not ready out of the box), but he's got the phsical attributes to make it work.

It's funny how Palmer gets the one year wonder label, but Boller is excused due to coaching deficiencies.

There are an awful lot of people who invest a great deal of time evaluating college footbal talent with an eye toward pro potential, and are paid to do so. Very, very few of them dare use words like "guaranteed" in their analyses, particularly at the quarterback position. There is a reason for this.

Palmer had good coaching and did nothing under it until last season. hence he is still a one year wonder. I'm still undecided on wether my piss poor bengals should take him...I think we trade down to 2 or even lower say 5-6 maybe, pick up our cornerback there then worry about a QB in the second round.

Palmer didn't have good coaching until two years ago. In fact, he went through four Offensive coordinators, meaning four different systems. Under the last one, Norm Chow's, he did well. He did so in his second year in the system.

I'm a Bengals fan as well, and I would be happy with Palmer, but I would also like Newman or Leftwich. I think they would like to trade down just like you say, but they can't force teams to do it. At the moment, nobody wants to move up.

Well Palmer only gets the 'one year wonder label' because he won the heisman, and he's projected a the first pick in the draft. He'll still go well ahead of Boller despite any 'labels', so don't feel too bad for him.

I think the Boller has alot more potential upside, but is clearly a more risky bet than Palmer. Boller was called the next John Elway in high school, so his physical skills have alway been there, and he has a decent excuse IMO for his late blooming. Whether he continues to improve or not, I don't know. I definitely wouldn't waste a top 10 pick on him to find out though.

..but much better evaluators than Mel Kiper, which was the original point, I believe.

I dunno, it's basically impossible to know how good he is or isn't. Scouts for teams are working from the persepective of how a player will work for their system/team, while he's trying to generalize a player's ability. He does at times breakdown how he thinks a player would do in a particular system, but not too often.

I would guess he's probably on par with the average NFL "talent evaluator."

Let's not say this Coug. :D

Grossman 4 Jags!

Re: Guaranteed - Kyle Boller will be a star
 

by the way, wher have you heard or read this? I listen to all his audio chats and he has basically only said that he is being over-hyped right now. He maintains that Lewftwich is better, and thinks Boller won't go as high as people think on draft day.

I think the top 3 or 4 QB's in this draft will all be busts.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teamstats?teamId=25

He completed 53% this year...28 TDs, 10 INTs

As will the top dope-smoking, girlfriend stabbing, 5 on the wonderlic scoring WR.

Of course, the original "point" suggests that Mel Kiper has never made an accurate prediction about any player, and therefore his analyses are a perfectly reliable counterindicator. Statements of certainty aren't too wise in this business.

The best thing about being a draft analyst is short term job security. It's really easy to say "so-and-so won't be a star" and have it not come true in the first couple of years.

SI

Re: Re: Guaranteed - Kyle Boller will be a star
 

It's one of the ESPN Insider article - I don't have it so I haven't read it yet, I've been curious about it, though. Boller heads Kiper's list of "Overrated Prospect".

I haven't seen too many places where Palmer has been considered a "one year wonder". A lot of the articles I've seen have listed Palmer as the most "sure thing" of this year's QB crop, which was why the article looked interesting to me since I thought their career followed a similar path [keep in mind that I followed neither very closely]. They both went to college with a lot of hype and neither seemed to have done very much until their senior year.

I don't understand, though, why Leftwich is getting so little love.

I saw one article in support of Leftwich that the NFL (and I quote) screwed up because fellow Marshall QB Chad Pennington didn't go higher than 18 the draft.

Looking at the draft in '99, I don't see where a team would have made a good moving taking him in the top 17 picks, plus he hasn't been great yet.