FBCB2 -- Bringing the Swing to the Southland
 

Conway, Arkansas. A small town in the middle of a small state. In Conway sits the University of Central Arkansas, one of many schools with aspiration toward greater visibility and prestige, and one of many schools which has sought to achieve that notice by stepping up their commitment to an athletics program.

The Central Arkansas Bears have languished in the flotsam of Division I college basketball in their few years of membership, though they have not had much to build on. Scottie Pippen is their legacy, pure and simple.

But he doesn't change Central Arkansas's permanent circumstances. UCA is an outlier in the northeast reaches of the Southland Conference, hundreds of miles away from most of its league opponents. UCA has no history of success on which to build, carrying a prestige rating of 6 out of 100. UCA's access to talent-rich cities is the worst in their league; only Memphis falls within 250 miles, so the program must pay a premium to recruit in places such as St. Louis, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Dallas, and New Orleans.

Into this morass, Lloyd Fesperman starts unloading boxes from his old Volvo station wagon into University-sponsored housing in Conway. Lloyd is 33, ten years a lawyer for lack of any better career to have, and a student-turned-teacher of the game of basketball.

Lloyd got to Conway because of the recommendation of a friend. Angel Plummer was a friend of Lloyd's since Angel wrote for the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective as an undergrad there. Lloyd was the site's biggest outside contributor, from lower in the Ivy League at UPenn.

Angel took the helm at UCA just one season ago, but a late-season nervous breakdown (foil to many bright young minds) led him to give up the head coaching position. He landed on his feet, though, netting a $200k scouting job for the Kansas Jayhawks.

Whereas Angel had a keen imagination and instinct, devising the most interesting hypotheses for the Collective, Lloyd was a teacher of sorts, distilling the Collective's results into compelling points. After his schooling, Lloyd had spent most of his free time coaching teenagers in suburban New York amateur leagues. Curiously, in the years he spent volunteering, Lloyd's players were more likely to end up at places like Columbia and NYU than Rutgers or St. John's.

Needless to say, Lloyd hadn't succeeded due to the raw athleticism of his teams. He had instead cultivated other tools, essential basketball skills like rebounding technique, jump shooting, and complex offenses. These were the ways in which his teams had excelled, and Central Arkansas wanted a good dose of the fundamentals.

So, on Angel's recommendation, Lloyd interviewed with the Central Arkansas athletic department and was offered the job. And, having no ties to bind him, he decided to pick up, drive to the middle of Arkansas, and install the swing.

Summer 2011--

Lloyd was hired late in the game, so he didn't have the sort of control that many coaches wield from Day 1. A look at the program turned up this situation.

He retained Angel's assistants, sight unseen, even after a 5-25 (1-15 Southland) effort. These coaches are recruiter David Corbett (5 REC), scout Jerry Roy (4 SCT), and assistant John Wallace (5 OFF/4 DEF), all hired for 30-31k. The savings in assistant coach salaries mean that Lloyd (who, by the way, is a 7/4/7/7 coach) has almost 13k per month to use recruiting prospects to the 2 prestige Southland Conference. The problem that crops up on recruits' arrival is that UCA has training facilities rated 1/10, worst in the league.

The first set of recruits to enjoy the shoddy practice facilities were Angel Plummer's only recruiting class, rated 292nd in the nation, and 10th of 12 Southland teams. For that rating, though, it was a strong class -- Angel's eye really showed through. 1* PG Danny Nunn rated as O/G, with 7/A 3PS and 6 HND; 2* R/G PG Paul Sanchez has C potential in all shooting categories and 7/B HND; 2* SF Darren Chestnut is 7/B in JPS with B 3PS potential; and 1* SG Cory Rodriguez will provide depth on the outside.

The guards fit particularly well into Lloyd's system, which values HND, 3PS, and DRB most highly.

The schedule that the Bears will face out of conference is not an easy one. They were roughed up a few times last season to build the athletic department's budget, and the squad will endure the same this season. The Bears will visit Missouri State, and welcome the likes of Illinois and Marquette to Conway. Winnable non-conference games appear in visits to Mississippi Valley State, UT-Pan American, and Arkansas State.

Recruiting--

To best balance the roster, Lloyd will target a big and a guard with his 2 available scholarships. Lloyd's recruiting strategy is to look for interested prospects within 250 miles of Conway (for an easy day's trip), and to skim the ranking services for impressive-looking players who have not yet obtained qualifying test scores, but showed the potential to do so with decent GPAs. UCA's recruiting budget allows for 21 evaluations, and the staff decides to make 2 early offers.

The first goes to #116 overall prospect Larry Scott from Satanta (KS) High, a wing who scores 19 PPG, shooting 1.9/5.0 from 3, and picks up 5.4 APG against 2.9 TPG. The second offer is given to 6'5" Columbine (CO) HS senior James Rosenblatt, a fellow 3* prospect with big-man potential, shooting the 2 and the 3 well while turning the ball over only 2 times per game.

By August, Scott's interest has shot up to Very High, though UCA is not among his Top 5. No one ahead of UCA has offered him a scholarship, though. The same situation is true of Rosenblatt, except his interest in UCA is Low.

Lloyd decides to pull the offer to Rosenblatt and offer that scholarship to 2* big Daniel Eddington, from Halls (TN) HS. At 7'4", with good inside shooting (58% for 11 FGA), good post defense (rated 6/A), and High interest, he seems like a worthwhile pursuit to the staff.

By September, Larry Scott had received offers from Wichita State, Colorado, and Creighton, so the staff had to pull out of that chase. Eddington, meanwhile, was weighing a Top 5 of MVSU (16, offer), UCA (6, offer), Tenn. State (20, offer), UALR (35, no offer), and UAPB (14, offer). The decision on Ellington -- one more month of full-on recruiting.

The staff settled on 3* O/G guard Reed Bautista with their second scholarship offer. Bautista was the first offeree not to have qualified to compete, but Lloyd wanted an inside edge on his 20/6/6/3 high school stat line. The staff will hope and pray that Bautista can score a 930 on the SAT before January 1.

On October 1, Lloyd received the good news that Reed Bautista had in fact scored a 970, that UCA was his only offer, and that he had Very High interest in coming to Conway. Now the Bears only had to hold off Illinois-Chicago, Northwestern, and Michigan for one month. As for Eddington, one month didn't change UCA's standing behind MVSU, but his interest grew to Very High, so the staff decided to ride Eddington out and scout a few more bigs.

The coaches' fears proved unfounded, though. On November 1, both Bautista and Eddington faxed their letters of intent into the AD's office. Lloyd and the gang celebrated with ginger ale and planned for training camp.

Training--

With backups, the idea was to maximize on-the-court growth while hoping for the best with the players' academics. And training camp worked out, as no one went on suspension for the first 6 weeks of the season. Installing the swing slowly, but surely, Lloyd set the team to 4/6/6/Out offensive settings, increasing the emphasis on motion and 3-point shooting. The team learned M2M and 2-3 defenses, won't press or trap much, and will double as necessary. Going into the season, the depth chart looks like this:



The team already has good inside D, if not rebounding skill. Hare, Nunn, and Gonzalez will share as much of the load on the wings as possible, so that the Bears won't have to rely on Chestnut and Co. at the bottom of their roster.

Looking ahead to the season, here is the prestige distribution for the Southland Conference:

You coaching or ADing here? Or is it part of the mystery? :)

Heh. Coaching was my intent (and how I've been acting in-game), but I felt more comfortable writing from a third-person perspective. Maybe that will give me some flexibility going forward.

My two alma mater, Nicholls and Southeastern Louisiana, are Southland Conference teams, so I'm looking forward to this one! (Also, the character in my dynasty is a grad of Northwestern State.)

My long-time career started out in the Southland Conference too with Northwestern State, although I've since taken them all the way up to the Big 12! Good conference to start in I reckon, given the proximity of the schools to recruit-heavy Texas.

I'll let you know when interesting things happen for Nicholls or SELA, then, especially since I'll be seeing each of them at least twice per season!

For this season, at least, Texas and Missouri were the states I worked most, though my commits ended up coming from Tennessee and Indiana.

Non-conference play--

January 2012 has arrived in Conway, and the Bears sit at #131 in the RPI. Much of that status has to do with the fact that UCA has played the 9th-strongest schedule in the country to date. That's the positive spin Fesperman puts on the 1-12 record Central Arkansas brings into conference play.

The Bears' shooting defense, thought to be the team's strength, is what is hampering the team the most at this point. They are allowing opponents to shot 51%, and 39% from 3; the defense's adjusted FG% of 58.5 is the worst in college basketball. Hopefully, with juggernauts Southern Illinois, Stanford, Illinois, Marquette, and UAB, out of the way, the defensive unit will finally jell.

In his private mind, Lloyd wonders what he'll have to do to be able to influence the team's non-conference schedule in future seasons.

The Southland, on the cusp of conference play:


StLee's schools are off to two diametrically opposite starts, no? :)

January--

In the team's second conference game, the UCA Bears held off the woeful Texas State Bobcats by the score of 62-52. PF Andrew Smith scored 19 on 8/14 shooting, and the club grabbed 18 offensive rebounds in 38 opportunities.

Unfortunately, SG Danny Nunn (of 6/6 HND/PAS) broke his leg in the game, becoming unavailable for two months. Darren Chestnut jumped from the back of the rotation to the starting lineup to replace him. The team missed Nunn's ballhandling for the rest of the month, committing gobs of turnovers and only playing one competitive game. However, SE Louisiana forced a few late turnovers and came back to beat UCA 68-65.

The Bears finished the month 2-18, 1-6.

February--

The Bears came close to breaking their 7-game losing streak, holding a lead against visiting Stephen F. Austin until (deja vu?) the Lumberjacks forced late turnovers, made a run, and defeated UCA 76-72. Fesperman hadn't had much time to evaluate the work of his assistants in the midst of the season, but this reprise of a disappointing finish made him more doubtful of assistant John Wallace's ability to build the program. Lloyd decided that he would take a more active role in in-game management for the rest of the season.

PG Roderick Gonzalez was also hurt late in the game, sustaining a broken collarbone that would keep him out for 3-1/2 weeks. The team's guard depth grew still thinner.

Fesperman's first extended venture into in-game coaching was a doozy. Against NW State, 2nd in the East division, the Bears fought from behind and had a shot to beat the Demons at the buzzer that clanked out (final score 74-75). Lloyd rode the starters hard, as they averaged 35 minutes, with SG Darren Chestnut playing the full 40, scoring 16 points.

Notched a solid 62-48 win hosting Nicholls in late February. F Tim Audley had a great 18 minutes off the benching, pitching in 11 and 8.

Nabbed one more win in our season finale, against fellow cellar-dweller McNeese State. 4-25, 3-13 on the (forgettable) first season.

Final regular-season Southland standings:

Postseason--

Sam Houston State beat UTSA 76-69 to win the conference title. The Bearkats drew a 13-seed, losing to #14 Xavier 76-90 in the first round.

15-seed New Mexico State made the Sweet 16 with wins over Illinois and Gonzaga before falling to Syracuse.

Champions:
NCAA -- Wake Forest over 8-seed UAB, 95-93
NIT -- Oral Roberts over UNC
CBI -- LSU over Harvard
CIT -- Davidson over La Salle

Only one honorific for UCA this season -- SG Darren Chestnut made the Freshman All-Southland squad.

Our (very poor) 2011-12 team stats:


The Bears were outscored 71.8 to 56.7, on average.

Lloyd cannot wait to bring in his first recruits and integrate the swing more fully next season.

Ugh, that's rough. I hope it does get better once you get your guys in the system. Nowhere to go but up.

In the off-season, the team's prestige jumps from 6 to 10. After the season UCA had, any improvement in others' perceptions of the program is fortunate.

UCA's two-man recruiting class is good enough to rank 122nd in the nation, though only 5th in the Southland. G Reed Bautista comes in O/G, and appears ready to contribute to the team's rotation as an outside shooter with decent hands and defense; academics will be his most pressing issue. C Daniel Eddington looks to be a redshirt candidate, if he is willing to wait to play. His hands and defensive skills are still growing into his 7'4", 300-pound frame, but as an ace student, he will be able to spend a lot of time working on his game.

Fesperman decided that AC John Wallace should be fired, given the team's lack of improvement over the course of the season. In his stead, Fesperman brought in 65-year-old Wayne Ramos (4 O/5 D) at a $40,000 salary. This may prove to be a position of relatively frequent turnover.

Conference movement affects the Southland, as Texas-San Antonio and Texas State leave for the Western Athletic Conference and FBS football. The Southland, now at 10 teams, drops its divisions and adopts a double-round-robin schedule. In the midst of this, the Southland's prestige rose to a 3, with Sam Houston State leading the way as a 62.

With one scholarship available after the last recruiting cycle (due to the transfer of R/O wing Bryon Sheehan to South Dakota State), Fesperman reaches out to interested prospects with potential, but no one accepts the offer to come to Conway.

The athletic department decides that Lloyd and the gang did not accomplish enough to earn the privilege of making their own non-conference schedule. However, they announce plans to upgrade the team's facilities in time for next off-season. The Bears welcome this bit of news, as their facilities, now rated 1/10, are the worst in the conference.

When the athletic department concludes its scheduling duties, it releases the result to the coaching staff. With 4 home games against 7 road dates, there is already improvement for the Bears. The team will make a trip to #24 Arkansas, and will host Texas Tech in an interesting late-January matchup.

Recruiting--

With 3 open scholarships, Lloyd will look to replace F Efrain Burns and wing Elliott Hare (of 11ppg and 29 starts last season). It is another year of light turnover, and Fesperman hopes to build on the roster's continuity.

Fesperman will use the same strategy as last season, recruiting within 250 miles and looking further for talented players with non-qualifying SAT scores in spite of decent GPAs. And he decides to offer his scholarships to players sight unseen once again.

One offer is extended to 3* F James Callender, Mr. Basketball in the state of Arkansas, and the only top-500 player with high interest in UCA. The staff also decides to target Georgia G Terence Rosenthal, mostly on the hunch of his high rankings and the caliber of schools he is interested in (Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Georgia among them). The Bears extend their final offer to Kansas G Keith Littrell, whose high school statistics jump off the page -- 27ppg, 4rpg, 6apg against 2tpg. All of these players are of 3* caliber, and none has yet qualified per NCAA clearinghouse standards.

Recruiting coordinator David Corbett and Scout Jerry Roy had interesting news for Fesperman on the August 1st staff meeting. Callender had qualified, and his interest in the school was now very high... but he graded out as only a R/O talent. UCA was the only school recruiting Littrell's impressive stat line, and his abilities graded out as a R/G. As for Rosenthal... quite a set of developments there. He qualified, and he had no offers in his Top 5 (UCA had offered, but not cracked that list)... but graded out as a Y/B. HUGE potential there.

Fesperman thought about the surprisingly divergent trajectories of Callender and Rosenthal. The staff decided that it would be best to pursue both. Rosenthal's apparent talent was irresistible; as for Callender, Scout Roy said he hoped he was wrong. After all, Callender had just been named Mr. Basketball in Arkansas, and he loved UCA. So the plan was to press forward on these three.

September's news was not as promising. Rosenblatt received offers from better schools closer to home such as Wofford, Chattanooga, and Tennessee Tech (44, 43, 31). Fesperman had to cut the cord. Arkansas (78) jumped into the fray for Callender. And Littrell had still not raised his SAT score from the 840 he had in July, needing a 940 to qualify. And in the midst of this, 12 of UCA's 20 call-list prospects got offers that put the Bears out of the running.

The staff decided to continue to press on Littrell and Callender, and confronted one more interesting discovery. Wing Rory Troyer was a throw-in to August's call list, and was not even scouted. But in September, he stated a high level of interest in Central Arkansas. That, combined with his remarkable 32/7 stat line and impeccable 3-point shooting (4/8 per game), was enough to convince the coaches to overlook issues with Troyer -- turnovers, non-qualifying status with only a 2.17 GPA -- and one other standout prospect (O/B wing George Propst, though his statistics did not match his scouted talent) to offer him their third scholarship.

Come October, Troyer, Littrell, and Callender all had very high interest in coming to Conway, and only Troyer (rated R/Y) had not qualified. Fesperman decided to distrust the mixed reaction of his scout's analyses, and go after this group of 3 that were distinguished statistically and in the honors they had received (Littrell happened to be Mr. Basketball for the state of Kansas, in addition to Callender's honor). Propst still had no offers, by the way.

November 1 came and went eerily in the basketball offices. None of the Bears' three targets committed, but none of them committed elsewhere. Troyer was the only target to have another offer (to Chattanooga (43)), but he still had not qualified. Callender's wait was nerve-wracking in that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (90 and 86) began to contact him. Littrell's wait, with no other schools pursuing him, was stranger. At any rate, this pursuit would have to continue into the season.

Training--

Same as last year. The staff pushed the backups, while ensuring that key players got their studies in order. The team learned the matchup zone in addition to M2M and the 2-3.

Unfortunately, our leading scorer and RS-senior leader, F Elliott Hare, slacked off and was suspended for the fall term. This is a blow to the team; Fesperman and AC Ramos will use the chance to replace Hare's inefficient scoring with a better glue player from the bench. As of now, they plan on trying out freshman wing Reed Bautista.

In Hare's absence, the offense will be centered on C Kenny Ragin, hoping to capitalize on an inside-outside dynamic. Here is how the team looks after training:

Non-conference play--

The team can't overcome 30% shooting in a 43-50 loss at Cal State Bakersfield. At Wichita State, the Bears are even colder, shooting 22% in a 32-55 loss. Even a defense that holds its own can't compete with such anemic scoring totals. So Fesperman and Ramos decide to turn the offense's focus inward, while also tabbing wing Danny Nunn as a key player; hopefully these moves reinforce the kick-out aspect of the swing offense.

When UCA arrives in Athens, Ohio, the Ohio U. Bobcats are ranked 21st in the nation. This time, the Bears do a better job of competing, shooting 41%, but turnovers ultimately squelch their upset bid, as UCA committed 15 turnovers to Ohio's 4. At Mississippi State, Central Arkansas drops an ugly one, 48-65.

Next comes the turn of the month, and the coaches once again anticipate hearing from their targeted recruits. Only one email comes in, but it's a good one, as G Keith Littrell commits to the Bears.