NFL Week 16
 

NFL Week 16 kicks off tomorrow with the Texans traveling to Indianapolis to face the Colts. The Colts can clinch the number one overall pick with a loss tomorrow as they have clinched the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Rams and Vikings if it were to come to that. Vikings have a decent lead over the Rams currently in the SOS department as well (five games).

I'm a Colts fan and I'd like to see the team end up with the number one overall pick so I'll definitely be rooting against them tomorrow night.

is it me or does matt barkley look like the lost hasselbeck brother?

Go Colts!

Great start for the Colts. Fumble on very 1st play recovered by the Texans with an Arian Foster TD a few plays later.

In an odd way, I find the game interesting just because the crowds are really thin and you can hear the action on the field pretty well.

This is some really bad quarterback play, on both sides.

Personal foul, roughing the passer on THAT???!?!

Are you kidding me?

Yeah. Terrible, terrible call.

Best the Colts have looked since they lost to Pittsburgh earlier in the year. Colts in danger of screwing up getting the number one overall pick.

You're really out in a limb here. Orslavsky and Gabbert have combined for like 4 career wins, right?

:)

pull it out colts, keep my dream of Luck on the Vikes alive

YES! the dream lives! suck for luck!!!!!!

yesljdk;lafjiodjaklf;jd;lakjfk;lj!!!!!111

Indy probably just cost themselves the #1 overall pick. If they beat a 10 win Houston team, they're not going to lose to a 4 win Jacksonville team.

Pretty sure the Vikes are eliminated, I think it's only between the Colts and Rams for #1 overall.

Oh shit... I didn't realize who was playing.

Vikings strength of schedule is actually worse then the Rams right now.

Special thanks to J.J. Watt and Glover Quin for getting the Colts the redzone yards they needed.

Plus Minnesota can still finish as the only 2-14 team even if tie breakers aren't in their favor.

Indy and Minny can both finish with >3 wins. The Rams can get #1 if they get lucky.

Rams can get luck-y if they get #1?

I'm glad the Colts have got these two wins and will certainly be cheering for them to beat Jacksonville. I'd like to have the #1 pick, but I want to win. Always. That's the name of the game.

1st pick, 2nd pick, 3rd pick...no matter which way it goes the Colts will be able to get a player who should be able to help them out significantly, hopefully both now and in the future.

The fun factor becomes if the Rams get the number one pick and are willing to trade it.

On the way home from the game. Observations...

Houston does not trust Yates. If I could bet, I would bet heavily on whatever road team plays them in the playoffs.

Colts can still get the first pick if they lose next week. Most likely, they get the second pick...
I have no problems with the Colts getting RG3.

If these wins save Caldwells job, I'm sticking nails in my eyes. He butchered the time management at the end of the first half. Even orlovsky was throwing his hands up at the calls.

I have no idea why they would draft anyone except for Luck if they took a QB. You can hedge a Manning future injury by taking a 2nd or 3rd round QB. If there's a lot of demand for RG3 at 2nd overall, 2 or 3 extra picks would help the Colts reload fast.

Dola-

The other day someone was talking about who the Broncos could get to back up Tebow, if you wanted a backup that could run the same system. Dennis Dixon would be a really good player for that role. 2years/4Million or something to that effect would get it done. If Tebow got hurt, you could expect him to do many of the same things.

If the Colts lose to Jacksonville they probably have the #1 pick. It is still possible that they wouldn't win the strength of schedule tie breaker, but from what I've read it is incredibly unlikely.

Colts are guaranteed the #1 pick if they lose to Jax.

If only someone mentioned him immediately following the question!

:)

Quite some races for the playoffs tickets with a lot of teams involved. Probably some similar stuff out there on the net, but if not, here's some writing on what if stuff for the race to the playoffs. This was started before the Hou-Ind game, which amazingly had no effect on the text.


AFC bye week hopefuls:
Four teams battling, how do their tie-breakers shape up?
New England - lose to Pit, lose to Hou, too close to call vs Bal, lose to Hou+Bal
Pittsburgh - beat NE, lose to Hou
Baltimore - beat Hou, too close to call vs NE, lose to Hou+NE
Houston - beat NE, beat Pit, lose to Bal, beat NE+Bal
addit: remember that only the AFC North winner gets involved in the bye week race.

AFC North division title
Baltimore - beat Pit, beat Pit+Cin
Pittsburgh - lose to Bal, lose to Bal+Cin
Cincinnati is already eliminated on hthth.


AFC West division title (what a lovely division!)
Can Denver win it at 8-8? Yes, but only if Oakland beats Kansas and San Diego beats Oakland, in which event there will be a three-way tie, with the hth series evenly split and Denver winning on common games over Oakland and San Diego.
Can Oakland win it at 8-8? no, at 8-8 then finish behind Denver.
Can San Diego win it at 8-8? no, at 8-8 then finish behind Denver
Can Kansas City win it at 8-8? Yes, but only if Denver loses to Buffalo and San Diego ends up at 8-8 or worse. Kansas City would then beat Denver ( potentially in a three- or four-way tie) on division record.
Will Denver win at 9-7? They will if their win comes over Kansas City. If their win comes over Buffalo, they'll need Oakland to lose or tie one of their remaining games.
Can Oakland win at 9-7? Only if Denver doesn't beat Kansas City (including tie+tie).
Can San Diego win at 9-7? Only if Denver loses one game and at best ties the other one (so basically lose+lose).


Wild Card #1
Goes to the AFC North 2nd placed team, being Pittsburgh or Baltimore.


Wild Card #2
New York Jets currently lead on common games, but Cincinnati will catch up if they beat Baltimore. At 10-6 each, it will go down to strength of victory and NY Jets currently has the edge by 6 wins. It's mathematically possibly, but very unlikely Cincinnati will overcome that.

At 9-7 it will be decided between NY Jets, Cincinnati and either Oakland, San Diego or Denver.
Denver has a huge advantage, having beaten both NYJ and Cin.
Oakland has an advantage over NYJ (hth win) an Cincinnati (common games). Only if all three end up 9-7, with NYJ having beaten Miami and Cincinanti beaten Baltimore, it will come down to SOV between Oakland and NY Jets, where Oakland has a 9-win lead over NYJ, which is very unlikely to be made up.
San Diego has a disadvantage to NYJ (hth loss) and an advantage over Cincinnati (common games). In a three-way, things depend on conference record, where SD will be better if NYJ lost to Miami and Cincinnati lost to Baltimore. If Cincinnati beat Baltimore, SD will likely win it on SOV. If NYJ beat Miami and Baltimore beat Cincinnati, NYJ gets it over SD on the hth win.
If the AFC West second placed team isn't 9-7, NY Jets ends ahead of Cincinnati if Baltimore beat Cincinnati. Cincinnati only ends ahead of NYJ if they beat Baltimore and NYJ lost to Miami.

If it comes down to an 8-8 team getting this wild card, it will go to Denver, if they ranked second in the AFC West, or to the winner of the week 17 game between San Diego and Oakland (providing Kansas City isn't 8-8) or ultimately to NYJ on common games over Cincinnati.
Yeah, uhm, somehow I completely missed Tennessee also being alive and kicking


NFC bye week race
San Francisco can still catch Green Bay and get home field advantage based on common games (SF would be 5-0, GB 4-1). Both Green Bay and San Francisco secured tie-breakers over New Orleans.
Atlanta is technically still alive, as they could catch New Orleans and win the NFC South on division record. Then they'll battle with an 11-5 SF for the second bye based on strength of victory. San Francisco has a 7-win lead and is unlikely to lose, that, but it's mathematically possible.


NFC East division title
Dallas wins it at 10-6, still win it at 9-7 if they beat NY Giants and also win it if they lost to NY Giants, but NY Giants lost to NY Jets. Dallas can't win it at 8-8.
NY Giants always wins it at 9-7, still win it at 8-8, if Dallas loses their last two games and Philadelphia didn't beat Washington.
Philadelphia wins it at 8-8 if NY Giants beat Dallas and NY Jets beat NY Giants.


NFC South division title
Atlanta can still win it on division record.


NFC Wild Cards
Atlanta or New Orleans gets it if the NFC South second placed team is 11-5, as Detroit lost to both of them.
Detroit gets it at 11-5 if Atlanta didn't win both remaining games.
At 10-6, it's still between Atlanta and Detroit, with Atlanta having the hth win to hold tie-breakers.

At 9-7 it gets very interesting. updated to make easier to read
Dallas - beats Atl, beats Atl+Det
Chicago - wins all ties not involving Sea
Detroit -beats Dal
Atlanta - beats Det, beats Sea, beats Det+Sea
Seattle - wins all ties involving Chi, beats all ties involving Dal, beats Det
Arizona - wins all ties not involving Chi
addit: remember that Chicago and Detroit can't be involved in the same x-way tie, Chicago will be involved first (if both are 9-7) and Detroit gets involved if Chicago grabs the first wild card, if appliciable. Seattle and Arizona can't both end up at 9-7. Also note that in all cases Atlanta and/or Chicago/Detroit will be involved.

BAL/PIT are AFC North, MIJB.

Thank you sir, has been fixed.

At work so I can't link YT (and I can never embed anyway), but...

39th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception

Always willing to help a brother out...

wow didn't think my beloved Cards had much of a chance to make the playoffs if they win out and the last wildcard spot comes down to a 9-7 team, but they actually look pretty good at this point. Unfortunately its John Skelton going again at QB against the Bengals on the road this week then Seattle at home to end the season. So still not looking too good.

But I still believe. :)

Skelton is 4-1.

Whatever he is doing is working and I'd think you would want him rather than Kolb behind center.

And Happy 39th wedding anniversary to my parents.

Big Ben is sitting vs the Rams

I just saw this. That should get a ref suspended, what could he possibly have seen there?

The bookie breaking his leg if he got the call wrong......

Ironically, Indianapolis' win over Houston 'improved' the SOS tie-breaker, trimming their maximum SOS by 2. The high number of divisional games in weeks 16 and 17 makes the margin in SOS small. At 'best' Minnesota will tie Indianapolis in SOS. If they both end up 2-12, Minnesota's SOS will have improved by 3 already. Minnesota can't get the #1 at 3-13 either, as Indianapolis would have to take another 2 potential wins off their SOS.

To put the number out there:

Ind = 120 + Jac-Ten + Jac-Ten + Hou-Ten + Hou-Ten + Jac (vs Ind) + Jac (vs Ind) + Pit (v StL) + Cin (vs Ari) + Cle-Bal + Cle-Pit + Cin-Bal + Atl-Car + Atl-NO + Tam-Car + Tam-NO + NE (vs Mia) + NE (vs Buf) + KC (vs Oak) + KC (vs Den)
=> between 131 and 139

Min = 127 + GB-Chi + GB-Chi + GB-Det + GB-Det + Chi (vs Min) + Chi (vs Min) + Det-SD + Det (vs SD) + Atl-Car + Atl-NO + Tam-Car + Tam-NO + KC-Oak + KC-Den + Oak-SD + Den (vs Buf) + Was (vs Min) + Was (vs Phi) + Ari (vs Cin) + Ari (vs Sea)
=> between 139 and 147

StL = 132 + Sea-SF + Sea-SF + Sea-Ari + Sea-Ari + SF (vs StL) + SF (vs StL) + Ari-Cin + Ari (vs Cin) + Phi-Dal + Phi-Was + Dal-NYG + Was (vs Min) + NYG (vs NYJ) + Pit (v StL) + Cle-Bal + Cle-Pit + Cin-Bal + GB (vs Chi) + GB (vs Det) + NO (vs Atl) + NO (vs Tam)
=> between 143 and 153

"Jac-Ten" denotes a hth clash, which increases the SOS by 1
"Jac (vs Ind)" denotes that a Jac win vs Ind will increase the SOS by 1


I think this 'proves' Indianapolis clinches the #1 with a loss against Jacksonville, and still gets it if Minnesota and St. Louis both win one of their remaining two games.

Giants I'm sure will continue their trend of laying eggs in must win games today.

Sorry to have to root against you Lions and Falcons fans, but I need at least one of your teams to lose today so my beloved Cards still have a shot at the playoffs (assuming Cards win against Cincy). Both up against hot tough opponents, so looking like Cards could still be in it after this week.

Yes! Go St. Louis!

Let's keep our fingers crossed. ;)

Damnit, I haven't even made the popcorn yet and the Bucs are already down 10-0! *sigh*

Tebow magic working on bills kicker.

+1 from a Colts fan.

+2 from a Vikes fan

Silly Raiders. LOL