The 2024 Presidential Nomination - GOP Debate #1 (Aug 23, 2023)
 

Simple question. Who wins it tonight.

Define "win" however and in whatever context you want.


(Yeah, I purposely left out Trump because I suspect many of you will say he won by default).

https://www.npr.org/2023/08/22/11952...bate-milwaukee

Burgum was apparently injured during a staff pickup bball game last night and brought to the emergency room.

Yeah, I saw that he might not make the debate. Too bad if he doesn't, I have absolutely no idea who he is. Would have been good to see how he performed.

I said Christie because he's the only one who has the balls to go after Trump apparently, But I could have said Trout because if Trump is still on the ballot it doesn't matter who "wins"

Win is a loose term here, Christie will be a winner in the eyes of independents and moderate GOP because he will tell the truth about Trump. I picked Vivek though, because I feel he is articulate enough to make the biggest gains poll wise of the 8 (7 if Burgum can't make it)

DeSantis will be the biggest loser because he will actually have to think on his feet and it has already been made public that he will be defending Trump. Which to me means they are hedging their bets on Trump being convicted and know this is the best road to get the nomination if he can't run. Of course this is not true because Trump will never endorse him and it's too late with Trump supporters because their demigod has already made his disdain for DeSantis clear.

In the end though as mentioned, this is all academic if Trump is able to run, it's his nomination.

Who does Trump declare to be the nominee if he can't run?

I think Vivek may be the most far right of all of them-okay with Russia taking over Ukraine, pulling out of NATO, letting China take Taiwan I think I saw somewhere. Hope this debate buries him under all the other traitors.

This will be a competition to see which candidate can say the highest number of crazy things. I usually enjoy these debates but no way I'm watching. Trout all the way.

I think that the expectations for DeSantis are so low that he will be declared the "winner."

After a couple months of What's Wrong in DeSantisland? stories, the media will be ready to pivot to Comeback Ron.

Christie. The number on Trump are obviously overwhelming but lets remember the people who DONT want him is also a huge number. Thats why I say Christie.

He is the only one who will go after Trump. I also think he could demolish DeSantis who malfunctions easily.

You forgot climate denier :) But these reasons also contribute to me picking him. He is just scratching the surface of becoming nationally known to a lot of the people who will eat up his agenda, so I thinks it's his night to lose.

I do actually agree with one point of his though, and that is taking super PACs out of the political equation, but then even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

He's going to eat a pudding cup with his fingers just to show America that it isn't at all weird to do so.

That's a good point, but I don't see it eroding the Trumpian base at all, which he needs to win a segment of.

I would love to see him demolish DeSantis. Christie is a talented debater and DeSantis does not have the temperaments to act with grace under pressure.

This is funny, but also a fascinating look into what the Trump base finds objectionable about each candidate. I'll give Trump credit that he's seemingly the only GOPer who understands how toxic cuts to SS and Medicare are.

https://www.vpdebate2024.com/

No one is getting that segment. It’s amazing how Christie and Hutchison are the only ones who seemingly understand this is 2016 all over again.

Now I’m under no illusion anyone other than trump is the nominee, but their only hope is consolidation and none are willing in some minuscule hope they can pick up the maga base. If trump is somehow ineligible it’s far more likely than base just stays home.

Expectations play a large role in this. We expect Christie to come out firing on Trump with effective, common-sense missiles. But they've already landed. Anyone who can be persuaded by effective, common-sense missiles is already ABT (anyone but Trump).

Saying Christie will win because he's the most experienced and effective room-reader at this game doesn't mean he'll be able to move the needle because one thing he has never done well is tell us why we should vote for him. He doesn't inspire people.

Expectations for DeSantis could not be lower. He's the constant butt of jokes. He's "relaunched" his campaign several times, but keeps doing the same things. We read countless stories about how awful he is as a human being. Yet he's the guy who destroyed the competition in a state that not long ago was known as the most purple state in the country.

He's the top seed who got kicked around in the first half and if he makes the right adjustments, it's touchdown after touchdown in the second half. I'll pick him to win not because he'll be particularly insightful or wonderful at this, but because he's going to be focused on the base.

In 2016, Trump won 14 million primary votes and 62 million presidential votes. More than twice as many people voted for him for president than voted, period, in all the primaries combined.

What we see tonight is not for independents, not for Democrats, not even for half of the Republican voters who think of primaries as the players warming up before the season opens. Aaron Rodgers hasn't even taken a snap in the preseason.

Haley and Scott and Pence will make their stump speeches. All three are good at this, but that isn't what draws new voters. Ramaswamy is the wild card. He's dangerous because he wants the Trump base, but is a far more coherent speaker and doesn't have the massive Trump negatives. He inspires. But he also seems to support some really dangerous ideas. This is his first appearance on a real stage. He could win, too, because he's had a long time to prepare for this moment and this will be the first look at him for millions of people.

Anyway, DeSantis wins because of low expectations and Ramaswamy buries the competent Romney/McCain types, who belong in government, but cannot really inspire people. And Christie gets to play his role.

I'd love to see a Burgum/Garoppolo type break through, but the people who would listen to that type do not vote in primaries.

In the end, though, unless this group does the smart thing and coalesces around one challenger (Christie will make this pitch, and it will fail because politicians), it's going to be Trump, and he won't even have to debate.

I'm surprised people are saying Christie. He's universally hated by both the left and right in this country.

Not sure how it'll translate in a debate, but Vivek is a really good speaker. Probably why we're seeing so many reports about other candidates looking to attack him in the debate.

The others will just be there. Most have been in the game long enough to know how to handle debates and I don't think we'll see anything special. DeSantis has never really been in a tough debate before so I think he might be in trouble. But none of these people really matter. These are just vanity campaigns for money or influence. People like Tim Scott are just hoping to be chosen as Trump's VP.

Also, these 8 person debates are silly. You barely get to talk and it's just hoping a soundbite gets picked up on by the public. I think they'd be better off doing 15-30 minute townhalls with the candidates where they actually get to speak and answer questions.

Reports are that Fox is going to show clips of Trump and ask the candidates to respond. How humiliating for the candidates there.

Burgum will be there tonight.

I think Bergum is the one that ran that weird "Donate $1 and get a $20 gift card" workaround to get into the debates.


lol this is pretty funny. He should make them get on their knees and beg for fealty.

I guess Christie is banned from the post-debate coverage on Fox.

And the fucker hasn't sent me my gift card. Should have known it was all a grift.

I thought the same thing but I did get it.

Well I'll give Nikki Haley credit for mentioning that the Republicans have spent way too much money.

It's very early, but so far she's only one with a different message so far.

Da Vek has that same brand of Snake Oil as the guy sitting this out. Fun wrinkle.

DeStantis' covid lockdown rant felt weird, forced, and was painfully memorized.

I think the next person who says "Thank you for this question" should be shoved off the stage.

Chris Christie should be invited to every debate for both parties if he can it as entertaining as that interaction with Vivek.

The moderators need a mute button badly.

...like a political Jeffrey Ross

Yes, exactly. He's not going to win and he's a bad politician, but lets see these guys react in real time to being roasted.

I'm also genuinely curious to see where Vivek's polling goes from here as people get to see him on TV. I really question whether a dorky looking brown guy that sounds like a nerd can appeal at all to the GOP.

She is doing a good job staying out of the mud so far.

The advertising stream on Rumble is verifying every stereotype of the right.

Haley continues to impress me tonight.

I think Vivek is going to be too polarizing. He's an either love him or hate him guy without the charisma that Trump has.

Vivek is a snake oil salesman. He's full of sayings but no substance. I was 50/50 on him before tonight but he has sunk.

The fact that he thinks letting Russia roll over Europe would be projecting strength should tank him, but he's going to have his supporters. He's put a ceiling on himself with his performance tonight though.

I imagine DeSantis saying "stone cold dead" in the mirror over and over trying to get the right inflection.

Scared to mention Trump's name so he bashed Pence. Then threatened to fire a guy who retired 9 months ago.

I forgot Tim Scott was on the stage.

Distinct wisdom from the Twitterverse. (I don't have to really like it to acknowledge the accuracy of it)

RazörFist @RAZ0RFIST
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13m
I declare the winner of tonight's debate to be Rand Paul.
The only man circumspect enough to realize this isn't the year to run.

The whole "abortion up until birth" shit is so maddening.

In terms of betting odds, Trump and DeSantis each got a noticeable increase. Haley appears to have doubled her chances.

On the downside, Ramaswamy went down a lot and Scott lost a significant portion of the small chance he had.

I was expecting DeSantis to win by not being awful, but I thought he was awful anyway. Still, he and Haley had the biggest overall increases. It's probably time for many in this group to drop out - definitely anyone still polling under 2% after tonight, and I'd say Christie, Scott and Pence just don't have a path forward, either. Maybe if other candidates got behind Haley, this could get interesting. It isn't right now.

I thought Haley and Pence were the only two that seemed presidential. Haley not being all in on abortion will spoil her chances, even though she seemed the most pragmatic about it and foreign policy. Pence is good at debates.

Predictit shows Trump as the winner of the debate last night. DeSantis is down 2. Every clip of Ronny that I've seen is him yelling maniacally into the camera in between getting makeup applied during commercial breaks.

He's the frontrunner and he wasn't there to defend himself, and from what people are saying, no one did anything to attack him.

So, yeah, he won.

What a bunch of cowards.

There was a peestain on the set. It had a lot of great things to say

Biden campaign out with a great ad on the debate already:


https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1694558222294691847

Interesting take from NeverTrump GOPer Charlie Sykes:


hxxps://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/the-vivek-and-nikki-show