2024 Election Prediction Contest
 

Almost forgot to do this. Here are our previous winners....

2008 - Racer
2012 - kcchief
2016 - tarcone
2018 - path 12
2020 - Butter
2022 - JPhillips

Here are the rules...

President Popular vote - Pick the winner and margin. You lose 1 pt for every pt you are off.

President - 5 pts per correct state

Predict the winner of AZ, GA, MI, WI, PA, NC, and NV. Add any other state if you feel like the favorite won't win. Otherwise it will be assumed you are predicting the favorite.

Senate - 3 pts per correct state

Predict the winner of MT, AZ, NV, MI, OH, PA, WI. (You can just predict party winner). As above, feel free to pick upsets in other races, but otherwise you are picking the current polling favorite.

House - Which party will gain seats and by how many (R+5, D+5, etc.). You lose 1 pt for every seat you are off.

Entries due by 7pm on election night.

My picks...

Pres Popular vote - Harris +4

Pres States

Harris - GA, NC, MI, WI, PA, NV
Trump - AZ

Senate

Dems - AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, OH
GOP - MT

House - Dem +8

I don't want to bigfoot larry, so I'm going to make a couple of changes that I'm not sure I really believe.

Pres Popular vote - Harris +3.5

Pres States

Harris - GA, NC, MI, WI, PA, NV
Trump - NC, AZ

Senate

Dems - AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, OH
GOP - MT
BONUS - NE to Osborne

House - Dem +7

I will be totally unproductive on Wednesday due to lack of sleep.

Bump

I'll do a "the polls were basically correct" entry here, with a modest late blue push:

Harris wins popular vote by 3

Harris MI, WI, PA, and NV
Trump AZ, GA, NC

Senate
D AZ, NV, MI, OH, PA, WI
R MT

House - ends up 220 D

Last bump.