FOFC GroupThink 2026: We take over the Cleveland Browns
 

Fresh off our GRAND SUCCESSES of recent years:

FOFC GroupThink 2022: We take over the NY Football Giants

FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

FOFC GroupThink 2024: We take over the Arizona Cardinals

FOFC GroupThink 2025: We take over the Chicago Bears

We get to take on the Lake Erie Challenge (blast from the FOFC past)... how can we save the mistake on the lake? Not exactly an empty cupboard, but we do have the matter of a certain salary cap inconvenience that will carry some consequence this year and beyond.

Let's go sort it out on the shores of the lovely Cuyahoga.

Deion Sanders as Head Coach! And then start the river on fire. :popcorn:

Alright, I got it out of my system...

Step 1: Who's our head coach?

Like every other team not in Baltimore I'd love Harbaugh, but I can't imagine they can get him. If we are committing to Sanders for the next 2-3 years, I want an offense-focused coach, but I also want a good OC. One of the big problems with the Browns is that they don't seem unified on organizational direction and that has to change. If Sanders is the guy, from owner to OC need to be focused on his development and production.

Are we 100% out on Watson?

Not a great head coach market and I actually like Stefanski more than anyone realistically available (Harbaugh is not coming). I'd probably go with someone like Saleh or Spagnola. They desperately need someone to change the culture and hold players accountable and I think those two would be solid in that role. They'll need help with a top notch OC, but I think the culture shift is at the top of the list of things that need to change.

I don't think they are out on Watson because of the contract. I'd say he is the bridge QB or a stopgap till you can draft someone in 2027.

And I say 2027 instead of 2026 because I don't think the Browns should trade up for Moore or Mendoza. It would require a lot and I think 2026 should be a rebuilding year with a focus on getting a QB in 2027 and building up the offensive line this offseason so that new QB doesn't get destroyed.

Saleh was a real disappointment in NY. He seemed nearly comatose some games.

OK, where to start.

QB: They aren't going to do it, but I'd trade Sanders. You can probably get a 3rd-4th round pick for him. And the circus aspect of him on the team isn't worth whatever small chance there is that he will break out.

Watson's cap hit is somehow $80 million. And then $50 in dead cap next season when it voids. I don't think that you can eat the whole $80 this year (though I'd see if that were possible to get it in the rearview as soon as I could). I think what we do is push some of that cap into the future and try and bring his number into the $50 range. I like the idea of him as the bridge QB.

Not worth trading assets to draft a guy this draft.

Coach: I agree that Harbaugh ain't coming. The young offensive whiz kids have been strip mined the last few seasons. And this team needs some adults in the room badly. Anthony Weaver comes to mind. Vance Joseph? I don't know if I want to bring a young guy like Chris Shula or Klint Kubiak into this clown show.

Yeah, I'm ont super high on him but the available options are pretty slim unless you want to hand it over to an inexperienced coordinator from somewhere else. I do think the Jets situation was really shitty for him and a lot was out of his control. He's had a good defense almost everywhere he's been.

My thinking is you're cooked offensively for another year or two because of the Watson situation. Best bet is to focus on putting together a formidable defensive unit while you slowly upgrade the offensive line for the next franchise QB. Saleh can handle that and I think he's a good culture guy. You can always dump him in 2 years when you find a franchise QB if you're still worried about the offense.

What about Kingsbury?

Kingsbury is interesting and wouldn't be terrible but I guess my worry is for a team that is such a mess, I think you'd want more of an adult as HC for awhile.

I highly doubt you'd get a 3rd or 4th for Sanders too. He wasn't very good and a lot of the flaws people saw in college came out. For a team that needs a future QB, they'd probably be better off keeping him and seeing if he can develop into something as slim as the chances of that happening are.

If fans ran teams you could definitely get a third, because there are large group of fans that bye the hype. Unfortunately most teams are ran by adults, and they won't touch him with a stick.

The problem is that Sanders comes with this somewhat unique downside. Sure if you had a Gardner Minchew and you wanted to keep him on the roster to see if the 1% chance he turns into a franchise QB hits, then why not? But I think that the Browns need to really focus on leaving the crazy behind, and Sanders” mere existence on the team makes it harder to do that.

I can understand that. I just don't think you'd get a 3rd or 4th for him. Maybe a 6th or 7th (one of those trades where the pick can improve if he starts a bunch of games). Probably some late pick swap at best.

Just doesn't seem realistic to ditch Sanders without an ownership or GM change.

Honestly, lean in the Sanders thing and hire Deion. What's the worst that could happen, you bottom out and become the laughingstock of the NFL?

Don't you guys think Sanders (the QB one, not the potential HC one) is kind of a get-out-of-jail-free card? You give the fans what they want. You give Sanders a chance to see if by some miracle he actually is an NFL QB. And meanwhile, you've bought yourself the year you need wait out (most of) the Watson debacle.

How's the rest of the roster?

RB - Judkins - probably fine, right?
TE - Fannin and Njoku, good
WR - Is Jeudy anything? Anyone else?
OL - Stinky, I presume. Any keepers?

DL - Garrett is all-world. Anything else here? Mason Graham?
LB - Devin Bush, Jerome Baker, and JOK are all fine, right?
DB - Ward's good. Delpit and Hickman are good.

So the needs are OL and WR?

I do. This is a team with Deshaun Watson "on" it, and it seems weird to me that we're acting like Sanders has all this off-field downside. I feel like, why not roll with him? I'm not sure what the alternative is anyway -- Deshaun? Spending the cap resources you don't have on a FA? Drafting another?

Minter? I know someone said get a young offensive whiz, but I would love to see a great defense in Cleveland.

Depends what you think about the QBs in the draft. Honestly the chance that Sanders is an NFL QB with what he’s shown is so miniscule, so do you like this year or next year more?

If his name was Smith he’d already be borderline out of the league, let’s be fair. Gabriel statistically was the better QB, and both were historically awful. In the last 5 years he’s in the bottom 3 for adjusted yards per attempt and QBR, below many other guys like Zach Wilson and Anthony Richardson who are considered jokes and actually had some physical upside to make you believe they could be a Josh Allen. I’m usually all for patience with young QBs, but Sanders isn’t it.

Merge the Browns with the Bengals and you'd have one hell of a team.

Ohio doesn't need two teams anyway. Merge them and award a new franchise to Portland, OR.

I'm not thrilled with either of the top-10 WR options and I'm not sure what to expect with Judkins after his injury. I think Love makes a lot of sense and merges well with Fannin.

This general framework is close to my thinking.

A few specifics:

-the good OL are all up for new contracts, so it's a pivotal decision there cap-wise... TE Njoku is a free agent also, I'm fairly certain

-rookie LB Schwesinger looks like a build-around caliber guy, but JOK is a serious career question mark with a major injury... the DL is a strength overall, not sure about contract details yet

-CB Ward and Campbell are both getting paid, but the two positions are in good shape, not a ton of teams can brag that... and yeah Delpit and the depth are okay, DB feeling pretty good


I'd say a difference-making WR or anchor caliber OT are atop the list, yeah.

Gonna be really tough to re-sign guys with their cap situation.

Surely both Barkley and the first year of Jeanty on bad teams is a cautionary tale about the top 5 RB?

I know the position has undergone a bit of a revival but it still seems such a waste of draft capital to me. Even if the player is that talented it’s so injury dependent and you can still get such talent later in the draft, I have to admit it just doesn’t make sense to me.

Njoku is a free agent.

Also have Tillman at WR who has been ok, but was hurt most of this season.

Still waiting for the Arizone cards thread to pay off...

Trade Gabriel or Sanders. Just outright waive Watson

Get Kirk Cousins or Jameis

Watson contract details via
Deshaun Watson Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Looks like cutting him pre-June 1 triggers everything at once, a $131m dead money hit and a $50m reduction in cap space for 26... seems untenable

Cutting post June 1 is still 80m in dead money in 26 and another 50 later, scaling down... and zero savings in 26

I think it's take your medicine (over the next few years), unless you can Osweiller someone into taking the contract which just seems inconceivable as well

So back to the coach,

What about Jim Schwartz?

I wouldn't do that. The team is a couple years away and in a rebuild. I think you keep Watson and Shadeur and hope one of them can be competent. Build up your offensive line and then take someone in the draft in 2027.

If everyone desperately wants a new QB, I do kind of like taking a flyer on Malik Willis. He has looked incredible for the Packers when he has been given playing time. Probably a guy you can get in on a 2-year deal with the 2nd year mostly non-guaranteed.

As for coach, what about LaFleur if the Packers let him go? The guy knows how to develop a QB.

Stories are out that the Packers are going to give him an extension.

I think the top defensive coaches are probably safer bets at this point for a coach. I'm not comfortable enough with Joe Brady or Klink Kubiak

I'd look at Flores first. I really think this is an organization that could use someone with some head coaching experience and out of those with experience, Flores and McCarthy are the only ones outside of the guy they just fired that didn't completely crash and burn on his first attempt. It would come down to his choices on the offensive side of the ball though because those offensive staffs he built in Miami were god awful.

Another thought would be Robert Saleh if he could pull Mike McDaniel as OC. I can't hold his time with the Jets too heavily against him considering he dealt with Zach Wilson and the Aaron Rodgers situations along with the typical Jets nonsense. The upside here is he's already coached the worst organization in the NFL so he'd see Cleveland as a step up from his last gig. If it could get the Saleh/McDaniels combo he's probably at the top of my list.

Neither would be the most exciting hire, but I don't think that exciting hire is out there right now. Outside of those 2 I'd probably look at McCarthy. Again, not exciting but I really believe the Browns need someone ready to lead on day 1 and isn't learning on the job.

I agree that whoever takes over as HC needs to change the culture. Realistically, they are probably going to spend 3 years helping us clean up from all of our past mistakes while winning 5 games a year. Just enough to get fired and set up the next coach to win.

So I don't know if Saleh or Flores wants that job. A black coach who has failed at 2 prior stops (even if he had good excuses at both) is never getting another shot. They need to be very careful about the job they choose.

McCarthy is 62 years old. This is likely his last stop no matter what. And he instantly gives the team a high floor. If we can get to "the Browns can't win in the playoffs with McCarthy," that is a huge win for us considering where we are now.

#TeamMcCarthy

As a fan of the Dolphins/Ravens/Browns sorta in that order, I'm pretty vested in the HC derby this offseason overall. I find the Saleh/McDaniel combo attractive for either of the latter two there.

I also find the #TeamMcCarthy logic especially compelling for the Browns in specific, as floor-seekers.

I think Schwartz is an intriguing candidate but don't think that flips the lever enough in Cleveland.

Among the rest of the field, Minter is really intriguing and feels (fairly obviously) like the Mike McDonald situation of a Harbaugh protege who lives and breathes ball, exudes competence, and is just bound for success in his next stage. I'd welcome him to any of my teams, including the Browns. Actually, I think he'd be my top pick for Cleveland, all told.

Getting a jump on the contract issues, one seems easy enough to isolate and discuss in detail here. TE Njoku was surprisingly (to most) paid a top-market offer last time he was up. Browns are going to be cap constrained this year and forward, and we seem to have a nice weapon in local product Harold Fannin Jr. on the roster for three more cheap-as-fuck years.

Seems like an easy call to me... if Njoku is going to cost someone, say, $8m a year we're better off letting him go and hopefully gathering a compensatory draft pick later. That feels pretty easy to me.

And then we likely figure TE2 as a low-priority target for a later round draft pick and/or a cheap veteran. I would be very open to moving in the admittedly trendy direction of a lot of jumbo/power/12/13 setups next season, so a people mover type might make sense.

I know I'm the one who suggested we start with the coach, but I think we should take a step back and first figure out what the goal is for next season. On the one hand, the division is going to be ripe for the taking. The other three teams were basically .500 this year and they could easily be the same or worse next year. On the other hand, I think we can all agree the Browns don't have a long-term solution at QB, so winning nine games next year could keep them on the carousel of mediocrity.

I think establishing the goal for next season, win and let God sort em out or stink once more before finding our savior, is the first decision to make. For me, at least, it would help clarify what I want in a coach.

Maybe making the playoffs and then almost assuredly getting booted out doesn't seem like a great plan to me. Fans and ownership seem to have accepted a rebuild year so that seems the likely goal. Sort out HC. Sort out QB. Cut the dead weight. Rise from the ashes. That's where I'm at.

Okay, so... agreed that big picture is part of what we want to focus on first, and that connects/precedes some of the specifics. That said, the HC decision is likely to happen in the next 10 days of real time, I'd think, so time's a-wastin'.

I'll speculate for now that none among us think the goal for 2026 is 12 wins. We're not in that mindset, we're not ready for that. So, nothing like mortgage-the-future and win-right-away votes among us. We're on a longer glide path.

So, that said... what decisions really get altered by the difference between "let's be respectable now while we build" versus "26 and maybe 27 are lost causes, we're in this for the long haul" p.o.v. ? Maybe the viability of a veteran/stable choice at HC and QB are less attractive if the latter... and I suppose it would affect our willingness to let older quality OL walk.

I'd be mostly in favor of: it's a marathon, no crisis if we go 5-12 in 2026 but we want to see signs of development and have as much clarity as possible at some key positions whether we are entering a window for the 27 season and beyond, as we get past the DW contract residue.

That would lead me to say "hire the HC we want for 10 years, but let QB simmer for this year (maybe Shedeur, Shedeur/Gabriel), beef up spots like OL and WR with guys we think could be valuable long term," that sort of thing.

Are we entertaining a Jets-esque fire sale?

I think let QB simmer unless there’s one you really like in the draft, and I’d even entertain another young QB reclamation project to add to the pot if you can shake one loose for nothing, why the hell not? You can throw a rock at any QB in the entire league and find one that’s done better than Sanders and Gabriel.

I'm more willing to swing for a home run on a less experienced coach if I don't care about winning next year. I'd worry that stabilizing things with McCarthy is a pretty path to 7-9 wins, especially with their schedule. They only have five playoff games and three of those are PittX2 and Carolina.

It's just so hard to win without a QB and I'd like to do everything to maximize either developing Shedeur, which I think is a long shot, or setting the team up to draft one in 2027.

I've talked myself into Minter or Kubiak.

Hire Pete Carroll and his sons and get a qb in 2027

IMO the path forward starts with legitimizing the organization. It's been the joke of the league for far too long and that's why, personally, I'd rather have an experienced coach on the sidelines rather than gamble on someone without any experience.

I'd put Tomlin at the top of list now although I doubt he'd entertain a move from Pittsburgh to Cleveland.

Harbough in Cleveland would be interesting

I am going to disagree with atocep. I think you get your cap in order and build a young team, that is naturally going to lose a lot of games while getting your qb in 2027.

Someone like Harbaugh or mccarthy wil want to go for it amd you win 7 games, stay in a bad cap situation and have no path to a qb.

B
 

Here's where I am with this team and as far as this exercise goes; what makes this an intriguing roster is it's not a text sim tear down and rebuild case. It's the easy path forward for us but there's absolutely no way it's a realistic scenario from a front office standpoint. You have a GM that managed survive a coaching change, some playoff roster ready pieces, and 9 picks in this draft while coming off a very strong 2025 draft class.

Add to the fact that you have the Watson contract, some pending free agents, and there are a few directions you could go in but tanking for a 2027 QB isn't realistic IMO. Andrew Berry is fighting for his job at this point and if he signed off on a full rebuild he's just signing off on his own firing after this season.

QB - Sanders and Gabriel graded out pretty similarly per PFF. Neither did well enough to move forward on building around but Sanders probably has the higher ceiling so I'd probably lean toward seeing if anyone is interested in Gabriel. The plan for Sanders would be to back up in 2026 and try to find someone with some upside to acquire.

RB - Judkins was looking like a workhorse and he's supposed to be fully healthy for 2026. Dylan Sampson was really solid as a receiving option out of the backfield. I think we can call this spot "good enough" for now or at least "not a priority".

WR - Not much here. Definitely a priority for the offseason. Isaiah Bond has elite speed but doesn't offer much other than go routes at this point. We're stuck with Judy here for 2026 for cap reasons. Everyone else could be replaced.

TE - Fanin is a legit building block. Njoku will be 30 and doesn't make sense to bring back with Fanin in place. Fanin is the better receiver and while not a good blocker by any means, he's better than Njoku. The play here is likely to get a blocking TE and another than can catch some passes.

Oline - Bitonio, Pocic, and Teller are free agents. All are in their 30s. We need to work on the line. Tevin Jenkins, who you may remember from this exercise with the Bears last offseason, is also a free agent and was solid enough to bring back on an incredibly team friendly deal if he's willing. Everyone else is replaceable.


Now we get into why there's no way a rebuild is realistic

Edge - Garrett and Alex Wright are elite

Defensive Interior - Mallek Collins is 30 but solid and on a reasonable contract. Mason Graham has a ton of potential and will be entering his 2nd year.

Linebacker - Devin Bush was elite and is a pending free agent. Carson Schwesinger is probably defensive rookie of the year. Jerome Baker is solid as a 3rd linebacker.

Corner - Denzel Ward is eating up a ton of space and isn't productive. Tyson Campbell is young and solid. Another spot that needs some attention.

Safety - Hickman and Delpit are both solid and young enough to keep around.

That's the number 2 graded defense per PFF and number 3 per FPI. It's not an old defense either and the only major contributor set to be a free agent is Bush. You can be a playoff team with this defense and a somewhat competent offense. Find a decent QB, some receivers, and an average OLine and this is a sleeper team for 2026.

As I said, this organization has long been a joke. 3 playoff appearances in their 26 year existence. They've had the top pick in the draft more times (4). It's time start building rather than rebuilding.

Okay, while we debate where we are situated/aiming for the 2026 season, a few things seem to be fairly in focus:

-Given our cap situation, we expect that most of our activity there will be fairly low-impact roster-fillers, 1-2y deals with marginal veterans here or there, and zero (or close to zero) "solve a long term roster problem with this signing" moves

-We've got a lot of draft capital, notably an extra first rounder, and that's the main tool we have this offseason to use to advance solutions to longer term weaknesses

-We agree that the top of our concern list is largely on the offense - QB, OL, and WR with the latter two being consensus concerns for a long-term infusion... and there are depth and weakness concerns elsewhere, like with any roster, but these feel the most acute

Atocep, I let my pee-eff-eff subscription lapse... would you be willing to share at least a perusal through what you see there?

I know in their assessments, the CB position is notoriously up-and-down year by year... are they behind your assessment that Ward "isn't productive," I assume?

Offense and then defense are below, sorted by lowest to highest snap count because sorting on the PFF website gets weird.

Ward's average grade over the past 3 years is a 66. Not at all in line with what he's being paid and he did see a decent drop off in 2025. Not sure if that's a one off or a trend. That contract was bad when it was signed and hasn't aged well.