2026/2027 Season NFL Thread
 

Might as well get this going early! I'm dropping the "regular season" part from the title, since we kept it going into the playoffs last season.

Let's get this started with a Lions reporter tempted by the "cap out" button...

Detroit Lions can produce 2nd-most cap space in NFL with simple contract moves | Pride Of Detroit

What is Daniel Jones worth?

That's such a good question. He already scored a huge contract that he bombed out of, and now he has shown out to demand another one. He might end up being his generations Kirk Cousins, but possibly less successful.

I would say a lot since this draft is pretty crap unless you're one of the teams that is content with tanking next season. Teams that probably need a QB (assuming Vegas drafts Mendoza):

Cleveland
Indianapolis
New York Jets
Minnesota
Miami
Pittsburgh
Arizona

Then you have teams that might be looking around like Houston or Atlanta.

So there should be some pretty strong bidding for a guy like Jones. I'd think Minnesota and Indianapolis would be the frontrunners. And I think it would require a bare minimum of around 3 years, $110 million which would be similar to what Darnold got.

I do wonder if he wants to stay in Indy. If I were him I'd be very tempted to head to Minnesota.

Sounds like just enough money to pay Maxx Crosby!

Dolphins released WR Tyreek Hill and he's not returing. wonder which sharks will circle him.

Tyreek seems like a guy who is going to get overdrafted in fantasy and get way too much preseason national coverage because of his name. And then he’ll end the season with 34 catches for 427 yards.

32 years old, coming off a very serious knee injury, and his game depended heavily on elite athleticism. Enormous regression incoming.

Next year's SB is on Valentine's Day. Make your Saturday plans now.

Since the SB is so late now, they should move it to Saturday anyway

:+1:

so much money being made on the run-up days, game on Saturday is a financial loser

This sounds like a good idea, and is something I never really thought about. It would be more fun watching knowing you had Sunday off.

I wonder how it would affect dollars spent at the SB location? Would people being able to get away on Sunday morning/afternoon come at a cost to hotels, restaurants, etc.? I suppose those that can afford to go it wouldn't make a difference. The rich would just come to town a day earlier anyway?

If it were always on Saturday and most everyone having the next day off Super Bowl parties might be a bit wilder? A few more dui's on Saturday night?

And as I typed my post I see QS posted this..

I confess I have just mentally penciled him in to go back to the Colts, and haven't really even mulled him as a part of the Browns thread, or my armchair Dolphins planning, etc. Doesn't that feel penetratingly obvious to us all, that they make that move and he takes it in good faith?

I get that "the market" matters in what the two sides should agree to, but... he just doesn't feel like a free agent to me.

I don't see how the Colts trade for Sauce in a win-now move and then let their QB go. IMO, they are tied to Jones whether it makes sense or not.

We will knkw soon enough. The tag deadline is coming. They either need to make a deal or tag him. If he hits the open market there will be a bidding war.

I don't think the tag is that important -- I think that no one will want/have a need for him as much as the Colts do.

I think Darnold and the Vikings means any GM making a decision to move on from a QB who has had any amount of success with their team has to be really freaking confident in their ability to find a better option, and there’s almost certainly not a better option out there this year. I think they have to suck it up and bring him back but I don’t envy their position.

Yeah, Darnold makes this decision easy. And if not easy or it ends up being too much money for what they get out of him, at least it's justifiable at the time.

So, since the "harvest the discarded early-drafted QBs for latent great value" theme is going around now... who's next there? Trey Lance? Will Levis? Mac Jones for $25m?






(no, it's sam Howell)

Malik Willis was a 3rd rounder but he seems poised for a possible break-out.

I think if you really believe in your ability to develop a QB there’s still something there in Lance. He needs so much more experience and time but there are flashes every time I watch him.

If I’m an owner I feel way better giving him the majority of the season and betting that there’s a NFL QB in there somewhere than I do Shedeur or Dillon Gabriel, put it that way.

Twenty-Eight QBs qualified for QBR using ESPN's methodology (as good as any to create a list of QBs who contributed meaningfully to the 2025 Regular Season), so those are the men I'll be considering.

Tier 1: Consistently: execute & elevate the game plan, improvise successfully, decode & exploit defenses, destroy souls.
Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen

You could argue that Mahomes & Allen took a step back this year as both of their organizations decided to see what would happen if they continued to underinvest in the rest of the offense, and that Stafford's success relied a lot on a good line, great playcaller, and elite playmakers, but in a normalized world where Allen has a Top 10 WR, Mahomes has a functioning O-Line, and Puka spends the season suspended due to a PR disaster, these three are still likely responsible for getting their teams a similar number of double-digit wins in the regular season.


Tier 2: Got a lot better, and could still get better.
Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold

Despite their success this year, these two still carry reputations as limited and/or prone to bozo playing. But I'd argue that you look at the 2nd half of the season and the playoffs and both of these guys are rounding into elite territory. Yeah, they took a few years to get there and yeah, we expect elite QBs to flash elite-ness from the start, but the elevated play of both this year shows, IMO, that QBs can grow into elite-ness through nurture, and that's important for looking at prospects in the future. You might argue that someone like Darnold doesn't really have a ceiling past where he is now, but go back a few years and we all probably thought his ceiling was down in Tier 6. My point is growth of current ability can also unlock growth of ceiling.


Tier 3: Elite veterans we're starting to suspect might be capped out.
Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson

Setting aside that Jackson probably played most the season hurt, at this point you kind of know what you have with these guys. They can execute & elevate game plans, improvise successfully, decode & exploit defenses, but there's a cap, you know. Maybe just as simple as not consistently (or ever) destroying souls. Yeah, they'll drag their team to a win here and there, but at this point it's too much to ask them to drag the entire team kicking and screaming to the promised land. However, unlike some guys further down, if the franchise can put even an adequately-constructed team around them, the holy grail is still in play.


Tier 4: Pretty sure he can be Tier 1 or Tier 2 with a functioning O-Line.
Justin Herbert

The knock on Herbert for years has been that the stats nerds love him but he's just not translating that into wins. Well, the counterpoint to that is that the Chargers have consistently been a franchise to make dumb team-building decisions, and that means something. Fast-forward to this season and with finally reasonable play-calling, a defense with a pulse, and a bunch of skill players finally leveling up, things were looking good until he lost his O-Line. And then backup O-Line. And then the backups to the backups. So much so that towards the end of the season the approach to pass protection included "well, Justin's just going to have to gain yards via running or passing while simultaneously fending off the free rusher". So, let's give the guy one more chance with an O-Line with a pulse and check in next year.


Tier 5: Flashes of Awesome, Flashes of Bozo
Drake Maye, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams

All of these guys dragged their teams to wins this season, and all of these guys also gave games away. If Tier 6 is guys who generally aren't going to lose you games, but are also guys who generally won't drag their teams to wins, these guys are going to be a big part of why you won or lost. At this point with Love & Mayfield you're probably going to have to resign yourself to hoping for a good streak of things bouncing the right way (Baker's first half of the season, for instance) at the right time. Maye & Williams, however, can still grow into Tier 2 or Tier 1.


Tier 6a: Game-winners in the right situation, otherwise NOPE
Brock Purdy, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff

Give these guys playcallers who know how to accentuate their strengths and minimize their weaknesses, and populate the offense with solid contributors (and a star or two) and you'd in great shape, in no small part because all three clearly recognize they need to play inside that box to excel, which is no small thing among people as privileged as NFL Quarterbacks.


Tier 6b: Game-managers in the right situation, but need help
Bo Nix, Jalen Hurts

Yeah, Hurts has come through in some big-time games, and Nix had a bunch of 4th quarter heroics, but mainly they operate as cogs within superior systems where the system is mainly set up to succeed through them not being dumb vs. executing at a high level (even within a box, as with those in 6a). I guess what I'm saying is that compared to the guys in Tier 3 who can elevate an adequately-constructed team, these guys really need a strongly-constructed team as their platform to succeed. Variance aside.


Tier 7: Veterans slinging their last
Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett

The thing these guys have in common is they can figure out a defense and they know what they're supposed to do. The problem is that they're still going to try to do stuff they did years ago (or maybe, in Brissett's case, never did), and it's not going to pan out. On balance, their contributions are going to lose you more games than win them, but they're not yet the demoralizing tire fire most of the guys below them tend to be.


Tier 8: Could be the next Sam Darnold
Mac Jones

His brief cameo stepping in for Purdy this year was encouraging. Let's not forget that he began his career with Matt Patricia as his OC. Right now I'd trust him more than anyone below him, but it's still a bit of a guess.


Tier 9: Hugely talented and will be out of the league with CTE in 2 years
Jaxson Dart

It's hard to get a real good read on the guy given the organizational mess the Giants were this year, plus his many times out with concussions, but he definitely flashed more than the guys below him on this list. And while you love a guy who's going to put his body on the lines for wins, uh, maybe not so much Jaxson?


Tier 10: Trending towards "probably not going to lose you games, but probably not going to win you games either"
Tyler Shough, Bryce Young, Cam Ward

Each have flashes, sure, but not the kind of flashes that scream "going to be an elite QB". Yeah, that's tough on the two rookies, but I think we know who Young is at this point.


Tier 11: Trending towards "gonna be the guy who loses you winnable games"
CJ Stroud

To be fair, a lot of other QBs who didn't qualify for QBR would be in this Tier. It's just crazy how much Stroud has regressed since his rookie season. You want to believe that the right coach turns this around for him, but boy o boy does the evidence not look good at the moment.


Tier 12: Yep, that's enough
Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith

Whatever previous success they had deserted them this season. While they might be too expensive to cut (Tua) or hang on as a backup somewhere (Geno), the end of the line has come and there's likely no going back.

Gotta question a rankings list that leaves off 2 Pro Bowl QBs.

LOL

I'd probably put Nix in 6a right now, only because the "strongly-constructed sytem" piece is doing the heavy lifting. Yes, Denver's OL is solid but that offense has zero consistent playmakers. I love Sutton, but he's a 2 at best. We had to bring back Lil'Jordan from the Giants halfway through the season. Mims and Franklin have promise, but JSN they ain't and Mims is more of a ST stud than consistent WR at this point. TE production was like second-worst in the league and we brought a 41-year old out of retirement when things got desperate. The best teams have a stud TE. Run game is OK but still, no game-changers.

I wish they had traded up for one of the 2 stud TEs last year instead of drafting Harvey. He's a necessary type of back in Payton's offense but probably could be replaced by a veteran.

GMs really need to stop playing rookies too soon and also need to stop "moving on" from people that are still developing.

Both are very true. The first thing is related to the second thing as well.

If you hit on a QB in the draft who is anywhere from serviceable to great, then you have a ton of cap space to build a contender around them until they need to get paid. That seems to me to be the driving factor in playing rookie QBs and moving on quickly when the gamble doesn't immediately pay off.

I laughed. :D

Which creates the endless cycle of QB draft loto, which is just not doing the game or the QB's any favors.

Dola: And why are they doing it? To win Super Bowls. Who just won a Super Bowl? A team that did not do that. They also hired a Defensive coach which is also a big no-no according to the couch-GM's.

It might not make sense for every team given their salary cap and contracts. Seattle obviously had room for that. Denver didn't. They had millions in dead cap money from Wilson, took a rookie QB, and has made the playoffs 2 straight years while paying the OL and defense.

The last QB to win a Super Bowl on a rookie contract was Mahomes in 2019. Feels like we're well overdue for a correction there in the other direction.

Everyone wants to win a SB. The reality is you do what you can to get into the playoffs and take your chances. Only one team finishes the season on a win.

Daniel Jones is built for Indiana. He's built like a classic QB (and white), plays like a classic pocket QB (and white), is a really good/heartwarming (white) interview. He just feels like a local (white) kid, which means we're willing to put up with some downside while he grows into his upside.

I really don't mean to make that sound like Indiana folks are racist. Out comfort level is just sort of passively racist. We probably wouldn't say it out loud, but we're still in the 1980s with an unspoken belief that QB is a white position. But we also tend to believe that QBs shouldn't run the ball (except on sneaks, uncontested bootlegs, or gritty runs down the middle that show toughness and resolve and win us national championships), which also doesn't make us overtly racist, but sort of suggests it.

This is related to how we don't like our basketball players to be too flashy, and our ideal players can shoot the 3 all day long, because everybody knows that white kids don't mix it up in the middle. Steph Curry (and Reggie Miller, for God's sake) aside, white kids play on the wings as shooting guards and point guards.

So, resigning Daniel Jones as the face of the franchise is a no-brainer. Unless we could get Mendoza. But I think sticking with Jones would be an immensely popular move for next season.

That said, a couple of 5-12 seasons would change our minds, but Phillip Rivers would probably still be in the rolodex if that happens, unless Mac Jones becomes available. Or maybe we'll take a flyer on Jaxon Dart after the Giants ruin him.

That all may be true, but if Anthony Richardson was instead Lamar Jackson, I think people would come around pretty quickly. He'd be the Reggie Miller of football.

Anybody got an extra 6.7 billion dollars lying around?

Seahawks put up for sale - 10 days after Super Bowl win

I guess sell high applies here?

Waiting for the Larry Bird of football?

Speaking of Indiana, I guess the Bears are likely to move across the border?

The Chicago Bears were built for Indiana. Unless they are black bears. But I don't want to make any suggestions on the Hoosier state's racial preferences.

Nah, last name. MAGAGOPINDIANA will want him deported.

It's like the Reds and try hard players. For as long as I can remember Reds fans have favored a less talented player who tries hard over the objectively better player. Rose over Morgan. Sabo over Davis. Casey over Dunn.

So here's the question I ask myself: is this a bad thing? Let's set aside the passive racism I suggested above and posit instead an idea of a homogeneity that ignores race, because in the Midwest, race is something of an outlier (or an other...which, I understand, implicates race, but let's pretend for a second that we're honest Midwestern rednecks -- in, believe it or not, an open-handed and generous sort of interpretation where you just don't think about racial issues because your town is 95% white, so you don't actually have to think about it on a daily basis. [Welcome to rural Indiana.]).

If sports are aspirational...if we want our successful sports stories to be a reflection of our communal values...is it merely racist to think in terms of people who look like us and seem like us and wanting them to succeed based on grit and effort? To, in fact, platform grit and effort and work ethic as a plausible route to success in any given endeavor?

And then I realize that the balance is off from the start. We ignore that talent is just what it is. We treat grit as a replacement for inherent ability and want to make it a substitute for qualities that aren't inherently race-coded, but we want to pretend like they are. As though Rudy is the rule rather than the exception. If we want to assume that athletic talent is roughly equally distributed across racial lines, then why do we want to favor the player who looks like us, or has a last name like ours, to prove that somehow, someway, if we'd taken a different life path, that guy on the TV winning the game could be us.

Would we rather pay money to see less gifted, but authentically gritty guys succeed than than the literal best players in the world? Would we rather be a scrappy NC State than a clearly superior Georgetown? And what does that say about the nature of fandom as a mirror of our own lived experience?

I think you're on to something here. As fans, we can appreciate the transcendent talent. We love our Michael Jordans and Mariano Riveras. We want those guys on our team. But we also want to believe that slobs like us, if they work hard enough, can compete -- maybe not at the same level, but at an approximate level. We can have our moment in the sun, if nothing else. Maybe we can't be Michael Jordan, but we can be Steve Kerr or John Paxton.

I don't know where I'm going with this, and I've had too much bourbon tonight to think about it clearly. But I suspect that in Indiana, at least, it matters. And not because we're racist. But also because, due to our homogeneity, we also are.

And in that passive sort of put-your-money-where-your-mouth-is way, does that mean that your Midwestern teams are largely doomed to consistent failure unless and until the (white) lightning strikes and all the stars align?

It's okay to just tell me I'm overthinking this.

David Eckstein says hi.

Could probably have a decent convo with Radii about this, wherever he may be found (occasionally FOBL slack). As a former transplant in IN who I *think* occasionally still witnessed a racist slip as he mostly blended in with the populace. :)

Leaving race out of it, I agree that it is more fun to root for scrappy tryhards. And I think that you are right that it is simply easier to relate to a guy trying his best than it is to relate to being built like Myles Garrett or Shaq.

But if you are tying to build a winning team, you want as many outlier freaks of nature as you can get.

I guess in my perfect world, my team would have a bunch of athletic freaks and we'd win all the time, but the league's other teams would be filed with a bunch of scrappy tryhards that I can relate to and root for.

That and this is what the late Paul Allen wanted.

I don't know enough about Indy to comment on the specifics there, but Cincy has an underdog complex as a city. It shows up in sports, culture, politics, everything. Cincy was the most important city in Ohio and probably second only to Chicago in the Midwest, but now it's probably number three in Ohio and not really relevant regionally. Most of the population views that as an unfair attack by some ill-defined outsiders. So they love their sports heroes who overcome the "unfair" advantages of others.

They also love stars who are a little showboaty and rub it in the face of historically better teams and that comes from the same underlying trait.