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I realized that there is another implication in my math earlier that I think is pretty important here. If we start with 11 members of STARS then the likelihood of having at least opponent in the mix, with a randomly selected starting two, is 68%. If we start with 10 members of STARS that number moves to 74%.
With that in mind, I am vehemently opposed to being the first member of the runoff - we give away way too much edge on the first day. Normally we are playing with less than a 40% chance of getting a "wolf" in a 19 person game with two factions, assuming 4 wolves.
Obviously anyone else can make the same argument and then cite my statistics as their rationale, but I'll leave that for others to judge.
Consider my suspicion of Lathum, Alan T, and Spleen dialed up a little above the norm for the initial vote and the whimsical suggestions that I would make a fine candidate.
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