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One thought I haven't heard mentioned yet - it isn't your job as a moderator to keep the game close. It is to set up a game that has an interesting story and, by your estimation, give a 50/50 shot for either team to win.
The players are going to make the game great or something less than great. The moderator can help encourage the players to do so with his plot and storytelling, but it is the player interaction that makes the best games.
Finally, I think this has been alluded to earlier - in the larger games with more roles, it seems like the tendency is for the moderator to inadvertantly tilt the balance towards the good guys. This could be small sample set, but I feel like the larger games have ended up being very challenging for the wolves because it is hard to anticipate all the different interactions with 20+ players. When in doubt, I would tilt it towards the bad guys a little bit more. This has been much less of an issue (in my opinion) in the games of 15 or less players.
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