Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl
It is so funny to see people throw out math. I am a math teacher and most of the time I dont even get the percentages
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Its pretty easy actually. I just did it in notepad.
We have 10 people left, we know there are 1 seer, 1 bodyguard, 1 duke and 5 vanilla good guys left along with 2 wolves based on the game rules listed at the start.
We assume:
Blade knows who the bodyguard is.
Blade was attacked last night and protected.
Thus if Blade is good, he takes up one of our 8 good guy spots left. If Blade voted for Barkeep, we assume Barkeep is not the bodyguard. I know I am a vanilla good guy, that takes up one of the 8 good guy spots left.
That leaves 6 good guy spots of which 1 of them Barkeep likely isn't (the bodyguard).
So after that math, it means Barkeep could possibly be 1 of the 2 wolf spots, or 1 of 5 remaining good guy spots. So if Barkeep has a 5/7ths chance of being good in my mind, thats 71%, or a 29% chance of being bad.
For any other player in the game other than myself or Blade, I get 75-25%. So I get a 4% better odds of barkeep being bad based on Blade's activity than anyone else I could vote for.