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I always try to keep a seperate list - those I want to win, those i think will win...
I generally get some potentials for who I want from the early episodes (for now it's the indian guy, the brillo pad head kid, sundance head, and this kid from VA that is pretty indistinguishable to most)... but I usually don't think about the people I think will win until after hollywood - but I think that young kid that looks like he was super-jock from NY has a good shot...
But I think it's hard this early, Hollywood always changes my opinion, although I like Yamin from the get-go last year.
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