Quote:
Originally Posted by billethius
Weaver had a nice year last year, but I'm not terribly impressed with him. His flyball rate was super high last year and the number of those that went for homeruns was awfully low. I'm pretty sure most studies show HR/Flyball is fairly consistent for all pitchers across the league, so I'd expect Weaver to not get quite so lucky this season.
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By the end of last season Weaver's home runs allowed per flyball rate had roughly normalized. The more unusual numbers were his batting average on balls in play allowed and runners left on base percentage.
As we know from DIPS theory and studies, major league level pitchers have very little to no control over the number of balls in play that go for hits against them - this is primarily controlled by your defense, and to a lesser extent the ballpark and luck. Last year Weaver allowed just a .236 batting average on balls in play, compared to the normal rate of .270+.
Additionally, his LOB% (the percentage of runners allowed that don't score) was a phenomenal 86.2%. Consider that just about every other pitcher last year with close a full season's worth of innings had rates between about 67% and 77%, and it seems highly likely that Weaver was rather fortunate last year and probably shouldn't be expected to be quite that effective at stranding base runners this year.
Now, that's not to say Weaver can't or won't be a good starting pitcher this year, just that the evidence suggests he benefited from quite a bit of luck last year.