Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum
OK so we have alot of good stuff to go on.
People who voted for bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)
Path voted for BK.
Now we know they are both villagers. I am operating under the assumption that most wolves are looknig to vote for other wolves.
Now I know I am good so this is who voted for me.
Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)
that leaves- AlanT, Schmidty, JEheinze, Farrah, Mauboy, NTNDeacon, Fink, The Jackel voting for someone else.
of those 8 people I think there are probably a few wolves.
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We really don't have much info so far. Therefore, I'm inclined to agree that the "wolves" directed us to go after both bullet and Lathum. This means that either Lathum is a worker or he is a member of a rival wolf group. I'm leaning towards the former right now. What's interesting, though, is that barkeep was the first to vote for bullet - and we know he's a worker.
So, I'm inclined to think there is a wolf in the set of oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262). If Lathum is indeed a worker (again, a stretch now - but it's reasonable given what little info we have), laphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207) or Passacaglia (238) could also be a wolf. Even though this list of 9 includes me, I'm thinking it's the most reasonable starting point.
Right now, we need to start finding groups out. Here's how the vote started:
Clap - Lathum (90)
Bullet - Barkeep (95), Oile (110)
Lathum - Clap (97)
Olie - Alan (123), Schmidty (134)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)
We know that Bullet and Barkeep are OK - which would raise the interest level in Olie and Path. Still, the fact that Barkeep voted for Bullet leads me not to read too much there. At this point everything was spread out and there were many ways to go. Here's the next set of voting:
Clap -
Lathum (90)(160)
Bullet 3 - Barkeep (95), Oile (110),
Arles (163)
Lathum 2 - Clap (97),
bsak (162)
Olie 3 - Alan (123), Schmidty (134),
Lathum (160)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)
Now, this puts me in the crosshairs a bit as I voted for Bullet, I am not worried by Lathum's vote as changing from Clap (1 vote) to Olie (2-3 v) is a way to prevent him from being voted off. Again, if we assume Lathum is good, bsak's vote is also questionable (like mine).
Next set:
bulletsponge -- Barkeep49 (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163),
RendeR (199), Lathum (227)
Lathum -- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162),
SnDvls (207)
oliegirl -- Alan T (123), Schmidty (134),
Lathum (160)
Barkeep49 -- path12 (130)
Schmidty -- mauboy1 (135)
Passacaglia -- ntndeacon (136)
ntndeacon -- Passacaglia (147)
The Jackal -- jeheinz72 (148),
Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (208)
jeheinz72 -- bulletsponge (152)
This is the best knowledge set, IMO. Prior to this point, we had Bullet and Olie at 3, with Lathum at 2. After this vote, it moved to Bullet at 4, Lathum at 3 and Ollie at 3. At that point, seeing Lathum switch to Bullet makes sense to save his bacon. But the votes that interest me ate RendeR and SnDvls. IMO, it made sense to go for either Ollie or Bullet at that point and they chose Bullet and Lathum. We know Bullet is safe, which means that RendeR's vote made the difference in voting off Bullet over Ollie. SnDvls' vote could have put Lathum on the blocks had he not switched.
Next, we had two pile on votes by St. Cronin (bullet) and Pass (unvoted ntn for bullet) that helped ensure Bullet goes (with bullet switching to Lathum to save his bacon). Mr Wed also piled on later
So, if you avoid Lathum's status, you end up with these people being potential wolves:
RendeR
Cronin
Pass
Mr Wed
Arles
If you think Lathum is good (or a faction wolf), then SnDvls is also questionable.
Now, I have the advantage of knowing I am not a wolf. So, I also am going to continue the line of thinking that Lathum is a worker. If those two assumptions are true, and you factor in timing, who they voted for and who was "saved", I'm inclined to go with these three as the most likely wolves:
RendeR
SnDvls
Olie
I chose RendeR as he started the run on Bullet (who we know is safe). I chose SnDvls as he setup the run to be Bullet and Lathum. And I chose Olie as it seemed the "second group of voters" (who I think involve some wolves) seemed to prefer saving her and going after Bullet and Lathum.
With all that in mind, I choose to:
Vote RendeR