Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand
So, from a perspective of "is this thing over now?" -- what does Obama need to do on Tuesday to keep his hopes of being the nominee alive? In my view, if he pulls off wins in his home state, one southern state, and maybe one other wild card... while Senator Clinton rolls to easy wins in delegate-rich California, New York, New Jersey, and most everywhere else on the table... isn't this thing basically over Wednesday morning?
I'm just curious -- let's say Obama makes it fairly close in California and Tennessee (he loses by maybe 3-5 points in each state?), and he wins both Alabama and Connecticut, on top of IL and GA. And she sweeps the rest. Is he still a viable option for someone who is undecided but votes on February 12th? I really don't know.
|
My gut says that either Hillary will have a huge Super Tuesday and kill hope or the polls will be wrong like New Hampshire and we'll see a pretty big upset. I think she'll win where she's expected and he'll win around the country and will use that momentum to play the whole red state v. blue state thing against her. One of those two scenarios seems the most likely to me. Muddled and close would be...interesting and anti-climatic. But possible.
If he wins states like Kansas, Georgia, Illinois obviously and perhaps a western state like Colorado..he'll be able to play the whole "we're representing all of America" and turn her into the big city candidate, giving him flyover country momentum.
It's in his best interest for this thing to drag out as long as possible, because as soon as he's the presumptive nominee, the GOP will sharpen their knives and he'll be sullied or at least, there will be so many internet lies out there that the media might pick up, that undecideds who might be on the fence about him, might jettison the chance to pick him.
It's hard to say, but...this whole race hasn't played out like "it was supposed to" yet, so I just can't imagine that he's gonna just "go away" like that. I feel like the storyline isn't going to be written that way.
Oh I just wanted to say that he has to win some of those states you mentioned. I don't think "close" is gonna do it for him. He needs some solid cross-section wins, especially in states where he's not "supposed" to win or where it's close for him to be able to come out of that day with some life. If he just notches where we expect him to win as of today and gets nothing else, he might experience the tumble.