Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez
The key is, as has been stated, if Obama wins one big unexpected state like California. That's all he needs. But it's no guarantee.
|
And what other state is on the table for him to make that sort of impact? New York? New Jersey? Fat chance, he's way up the track everywhere in the northeast. New Mexico? Minnesota? Missouri? I don't see any one of them... hell, even all of them... adding up to "this guy can win." I really do think it's down to California.
And can he keep momentum by getting an "elector split" in California? Mathematically, sure -- if he finishes within a handful of points of her in the vote count, and he gets something like 45% of the delegates, then he could claim that he didn't really fall to far behind in CA. But what is the headline? What is the perception?
I think he needs to pull of a stunning win in Cali to stay alive for the nomination, and I don't see any other mosaic of closer-than-expected finishes elsewhere adding up, unless all the polls in most states are wrong by some massive tidal wave of voters who for some reason are not indicating their preference for him but who will descend on the polling places come Tuesday. And if that happens, we will need to come up with some clever new name for what we just saw, because it will be unprecedented.