Quote:
Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA
Seems like a math problem from that point.
How many of hers do you lose that simply won't vote at all?
How many do hers you lose that vote for McCain?
How many unlikely voters do you gain by her presence on the ticket somewhere? And how many (if any) McCain voters come over to the combined ticket?
Get reasonable answers to those & the choice becomes pretty simple one way or the other.
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I agree that these are the right questions; but there is no way to come up with "reasonable answers." No poll taken today, tomorrow, or even a week before the convention will give you reliable numbers on what voters will feel in the first week of November. Or the middle of October if you live in Oregon or any other jurisdiction that votes by mail.
Obama & Co. will have to take a guess at these variables, and I'm sure some polling will be involved. But, ultimately, it'll all be guesstimates and intuition.