Quote:
Originally Posted by cartman
Yeah, who would have thought Romney would have won the final primary in Montana?
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Other than the fact that the GOP held a caucus and not a primary in Montana, and the fact that it happened on February 5, not June 3, that's an absolutely valid point.
To answer the other question, I don't think California's going to swing red. The rural parts of the state are pretty solidly red, but the Bay Area and the city of Los Angeles are a) major population centers for the state b) pretty big college areas (which has been a stalwart of Obama's support thus far) and c) Democratic strongholds. McCain would have to either hit a home run on policy or have Obama get caught with a dead girl or a live boy to flip those areas red.
Having turnout be low enough that the rural areas might have enough impact to move the state to the Republican column is another matter, but that's where the issue of gay marriage could really be a wild card this time around. Traditionally, the issue has been a Republican carrot of sorts to inspire voter turnout, and I think that's probable again this year given the uproar over the recent California Supreme Court decision. On the other hand, that same decision could spur liberal turnout in its own support.
You have a court that has mandated that civil unions be performed, which kind of turns the issue from one of affirmative negation (if that makes sense) to an issue where the negation is attempting to remove a recently-established right.
All of which is to say, if civil union supporters turn out en masse to defeat that ballot measure, I can't see how that level of turnout would be anything but harmful to John McCain's hopes of taking the state.