Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan T
I think everyone is quietly cursing me under their breath right now or something.
Let's try to be productive with how we take the information from day 1.. I would like to hear people's thoughts on the various possible scenerios...
1) If both DT and Lathum were villagers and being honest with their reveals.. what action would a wolf take? Would they have committed strongly anywhere (to try to kill off a possible seer or possible BG while it looked like they could have a realistic chance), or would they have blended in somewhere? If either of these scenerios, who do you target from the day 1 votes to possibly have been the wolves doing such?
2) If DT is a wolf, who do you think moved to try to either save him, or jump on the pile once it looked like he was dead?
3) If Lathum is a wolf, who do you think moved to try to save him or push people in a different direction?
I think going after Lathum and DT today would be a mistake.. so lets look at who might be the best targets for today instead.
|
1) Wolves never commit strongly anywhere on Day One unless there's an absolute runaway. I think we can be fairly confident they were spread out. As I usually say, I would look at people who were quieter or dropped a vote with not much explanation later in the voting period. Under your scenario, both Lathum and DT are villagers, so the wolves wouldn't care as much about where their vote is as they would trying to not draw attention to themselves. You know, get out of the way of the villagers and let them kill each other.
2) DT was never ahead enough, IMO, for a pile on, and if wolves moved to save him, they didn't do a very good job. I think it more likely that if he is a wolf, they were surprised by the direction the vote took and decided it would be too risky to switch. IMO, the only likely wolves on a DT list would be the first or second votes or around there, when he wasn't in danger, and they thought it was a safe place to stash a "wolf" vote.
3) This could have more legs, as certainly DT was developed as an alternate candidate with respect to Lathum. But we have a natural tendency to do that, as someone (Telle?) noted yesterday.
I'm not sure we should be excluding anyone from being vote targets just yet.