Quote:
Originally Posted by miked
Well, in your example, nobody should ever get put ahead of a decent performing guy because they wouldn't have the chance to play and put up good numbers. My guess is that they aren't using ratings, but most likely potential is figuring in there somehow...it has to. Plus, you are dealing with a questionable area, the bullpen. The save stat is relatively meaningless, what are the peripherals. Closers usually don't get "demoted", but sometimes closers are traded to make room for a potentially better one, or closers are signed and then put into setup duty.
Your old example (the historical sims) had much clearer problems, I'd be interested to see if you were still having them, rather than this new closer problem (guys putting up All-Star and Cy Young numbers, then get dumped in to AAA). When you say a guy had an ERA in the mid 3s then started in AAA the next season, I don't really see that as unfathomable, especially in early decades.
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I've got this league running on my other computer and now have access to the actual numbers, so here they are. Keep in mind that I haven't done a real thorough review of the league for these issues, I just came across them as I looked at various teams/players in a broad view of the league's history after I simmed:
Closer issue:
Jeff Lahti
1983: 7-4, 15 SV, 1.71 ERA, 100 IP, 71 HA, 19 BB, 81 K
1984: 4-2, 42 SV, 1.93 ERA, 70 IP, 53 HA, 16 BB, 72 K
1985: 8-3, 44 SV, 1.57 ERA, 74.1 IP, 46 HA, 20 BB, 82 K
1986: 7-1, 2 SV, 2.39 ERA, 86.2 IP, 56 HA, 26 BB, 86 K
1987: 7-1, 4 SV, 1.76 ERA, 76.2 IP, 52 HA, 23 BB, 76 K
1988: 2-3, 2 SV, 2.45 ERA, 92 IP, 58 HA, 21 BB, 101 K
1989: 3-1, 3 SV, 1.08 ERA, 75 IP, 44 HA, 22 BB, 79 K
1990: 4-2, 45 SV, 1.38 ERA, 72 IP, 44 HA, 16 BB, 74 K
1991: 3-6, 2 SV, 2.53 ERA, 99.2 IP, 76 HA, 34 BB, 88 K
1992: 5-9, 44 SV, 3.13 ERA, 74.2 IP, 72 HA, 28 BB, 77 K
1993: 3-4, 4 SV, 2.02 ERA, 58 IP, 48 HA, 17 BB, 38 K
1994: 6-5, 30 SV, 2.32 ERA, 62 IP, 57 HA, 16 BB, 43 K
I don't see any reason why the AI would continue to yank this guy in and out of the closer's role. None. It's not that his replacements were awful - in each year, the guy was good (not AS good as Lahti, but good enough to be an effective closer). It's that, based on stats, the AI would make these kinds of decisions irrespective of the flow of the game. It's a lack of continuity that I find bothersome - not carrying over decisions and/or basing them on logic. Why would a team replace a closer that had the year Lahti had in 1985, even if some hot shot, sure-fire youngster was ready for the job? The Yankees didn't make Mariano Rivera the closer over Wetteland - he set up until Wetteland's contract was up, then let him go and Rivera took over. Had Wetteland still been effective and on the Yankees, there's no way he would have been replaced until he started showing signs of deteriorating. With 2 years left on his deal and K-Rod a FA after this year, would Rivera tolerate the Yanks signing K-Rod and relegating Rivera to setup in 2009 and 2010, unless he showed he couldn't effectively close any more? I don't think so.
Starting Pitcher issue:
Britt Burns
1989: 16-11, 4.19 ERA, 197.2 IP, 214 HA, 69 BB, 73 K
Signed 1-year deal w/HOU as FA for $158,500 on 4/16/89; signed 1-year extension for $241K on 7/14/89; signed ANOTHER 1-year extension for $241K on 11/20/89
1990: 28 starts in AAA, 2 starts in ML (I know he started in the minors this year because he was AAA pitcher of the month for April)
Signed YET ANOTHER 1-year extension for $241K on 11/21/89
1991: 6-3, 3.67 ERA, 68.2 IP, 66 HA, 28 BB, 25 K (w/ HOU...released on 6/12/91)
1991: 5-2, 4.40 ERA, 86 IP, 98 HA, 28 BB, 33 K (w/BOS...signed to minor league contract on 7/3/91, then signed a 1-year extension for $215K on 7/12/91, then signed ANOTHER extension on 12/23/91 for $250K)
By my count, that essentially gave him a 4 year, $881K contract with Houston that ran through the end of 1992, yet he only pitched 1 full year and part of another, both times fairly effectively. I know his BB/K ratio sucked, but I've seen pitchers in OOTP with horrible BB/K ratios not only continue to pitch, but pitch well. So I don't buy that the AI was smart enough to "see the writing on the wall" and dump him before he went downhill. If that's the case, then why 3 contract extensions? And in case you're wondering about ratings, he went from 5(5) / 16(16) / 10(10) on 1/1/89 to 4(4) / 15(15) / 10(10) on 1/1/92.
Keep in mind that in 1990, Houston lost 90 games and replaced his 200 IP in the rotation with a 36-year old guy who had a 4.71 ERA in 177 IP and a 38-year old guy with a 5.06 ERA in 151 IP. And in 1991, they won 84 and had a 30-year old guy with a 4.55 ERA in 184 IP and another with a 32-year old with a 4.83 ERA in 175 IP, yet they dumped a guy with a 3.67 ERA signed through the next year midway through the season.
The combination of demotions, releases, and contract extensions make no sense to me. At all.