Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin
Adding up all the win expectancies I get 61.41, making this a sure double situation. Where is my error?
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I haven't checked your math or anything, but isn't your error in assuming that 61% makes this a "sure double" situation? Are you perhaps forgetting the cost of the second bet to double down? Calculate your EV for one $100 bet if you stand and for two $100 bets if you double down. I think you're substantially better off standing pat on a nearly sure win than chasing a modestly likely double win here.