[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Maybe not Michigan - Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada (which I think all 3 will go to McCain) more than equal MI. But, yes, if OH and PA both go blue, there is no way Obama can lose. Likewise if 1 of them goes red, it will be tough for Obama to win. That's the way I've always understood this race.

The math doesn't support your scenario. If Obama loses all the states where he has a slim or suspect lead (NV, CO, IN, OH, MT, VA) then he has 264 electoral votes. PA would certainly be enough. If anything, it looks like he could lose PA and OH, and still win if he takes VA or CO. And we're not even including MO, which is dead even right now.

It's pretty clear that McCain needs to take both OH and PA, to win this election. 1 of 2 won't be enough, unless he pulls off a major upset somewhere else.