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Something that the guys at fivethirtyeight.com focus on is when a state might matter. For instance, regardless of whether Obama could be competitive in North Carolina or Georgia, they do not see many maps in which Obama wins those states without winning Virginia, and if he wins Virginia, then NC and GA are gravy.
Same thing with Missouri. Missouri is basically Ohio with a little more friendly GOP demographics. So, if Obama wins Missouri, then he has probably already won Ohio, in which case he will not need Missouri.
By the same token, it is hard to see McCain winning Iowa or Minnesota without winning Ohio. And, if he wins Ohio, he might not need those states.
Of course, if you do not accept the basic premise of 538--that elections are basically demographically driven and national--you probably won't accept that analysis either.
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