Quote:
Originally Posted by Jas_lov
There is only one state poll out today. A PPP poll has Obama up by just 1 point in Michigan, 47-46. The poll was taken Sept. 6th and 7th after the RNC. Michigan is a critical state for Obama to hold. 45% of respondents say they are more likely to vote for McCain with his pick of Palin for VP. 30% said the same thing of Joe Biden.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...chigan_908.pdf |
This makes sense. McCain seems to be leading by between 3-5 points nationally right now. Michigan is a DEM leaning state, so it makes sense that it is 4-5 points to the left of the national numbers.
It will be panic time for Obama in Michigan if his national numbers start to move but Michigan stays close. Until then, I think that he's happy with 1% right after the GOP convention.
All that said, it does not mean much if it turns out that the move toward McCain isn't a bounce but a fundamental shift. And I don't think that anyone really knows that.
My 2c (with hindsight) is that this race was always closer than people thought. It was just that the GOP was such a damaged brand that people who were planning to vote for McCain told pollsters that they were undecided. Palin made it OK to
admit that you were voting for the GOP--which you were really planning to do all along.