[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

We'll see.

In 1988, GHWB continued to increase his lead after the convention bounce, and that time period included Dan Quayle getting absolutely destroyed by Lloyd Bentsen in the VP debate. After that debate, the Dukakis campaign spent a lot of money into "Do you really want this man a heartbeat away from the presidency" commercials. It had absolutely no effect on the polls.

In general, after Labor Day the public starts to pay a lot more attention to the candidates' stand on the issues and voting record. That's one of the key factors that lead to Dukakis' demise in 1988. His campaign was able to do a good job of shielding his far left stand on most of the issues until the public started paying attention in September and October.

The difference is Dukakis was an absolutely terrible campaigner. The first debate after the Bentsen/Quayle debate was his worst performance, with the answer on the death penalty question. I'm certain a better performance would have helped the momentum and made the Quayle issue a problem. I think what it came down to is people liked Dukakis so little that they were willing to roll the dice on the chance that Quayle would ever have to take over.

I think it's clear that Obama isn't nearly as bad a campaigner and he's certainly not as far left as Dukakis.