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st.cronin · 09-13-2008, 12:39 AM

Intrade has McCain at 50.8, Obama at 48.7. This is the first time McCain's been pricier since before either had emerged as a frontrunner.

Looking at RCP's electoral map, the following states are tossups:

Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Michigan (17)
Indiana (11)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
Virginia (13)
New Hampshire (4)

Obama is likely to win 217 electoral votes, McCain 216. The magic number is, of course, 270. So Obama needs to collect 53 evs from the tossups, McCain 54.

Edit: my guess is Obama swings Nevada and New Hampshire, McCain gets Colorado and New Mexico, making the score Obama 226, McCain 230, and leaving these 5 states to decide the election:

Michigan (17)
Indiana (11)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
Virginia (13)

09-13-2008, 12:39 AM	#4361
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	Intrade has McCain at 50.8, Obama at 48.7. This is the first time McCain's been pricier since before either had emerged as a frontrunner. Looking at RCP's electoral map, the following states are tossups: Nevada (5) New Mexico (5) Colorado (9) Michigan (17) Indiana (11) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) New Hampshire (4) Obama is likely to win 217 electoral votes, McCain 216. The magic number is, of course, 270. So Obama needs to collect 53 evs from the tossups, McCain 54. Edit: my guess is Obama swings Nevada and New Hampshire, McCain gets Colorado and New Mexico, making the score Obama 226, McCain 230, and leaving these 5 states to decide the election: Michigan (17) Indiana (11) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out Last edited by st.cronin : 09-13-2008 at 01:05 AM.