[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Maybe the debates won't have as much effect as I thought. Here's a chart I got from 538 that shows how little the numbers have moved after debates since 1988. It's not really predictive, but still interesting.

I don't know. A 2 point movement one way or the other would be crucial in this election.

Those numbers aren't very surprising, either. The second debate in 1992 was the town hall debate where Bush screwed up a question on how the deficit has affected him, and Clinton came behind him to give the correct answer in his "feel your pain" way. The first debate in 2004 was clearly Bush's worst performance and nearly cost him the election.