Quote:
Originally Posted by Narcizo
So there seems to be three theories about why Render was killed. I think we all agree that it was a surprising choice as Render was a probable candidate for a lynch today based, if nothing else, on his missed vote yesterday.
1) Alan's theory that it was a move to clear path or saldana from scrutiny.
2) Lathum's theory that it was a play designed to implicate someone (specifically him, but this could be broadened to cover most Render voters). My problem with this is that if the kill was designed to cast suspicions on someone then it implies that no-one in the group of cronin, Lathum, Barkeep and saldana is a wolf. (I guess you could argue that, if saldana were a wolf, he might hope not to be counted in among the Render-voters because of his late switch). If one of those is a wolf then they wouldn't be trying to implicate a group they are part of. My problem is that I suspect there probably is a wolf somewhere in that group so I can't really buy this theory.
3) Jackal's theory that it was just an easy kill for the wolves who needed to make sure of a night kill after losing one of their numbers so early. I'm probably leaning this way at the moment (despite my vote for saldana). I mentioned already that the self-protection ability probably means that the wolves might feel compelled to target people who they wouldn't necessarily want to.
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To be fair, I had mentioned #3 as part of my theory that you listed in #1.
My theory was actually three different theories that I went through, but in the end I don't see the wolves looking every night to try to figure out which one person might not put in a night order. That likely is not going to last very long, and I have to assume there is some other game balance that the wolves have that can get around everyone being able to protect themselves anyways. So I discounted #3 already in my head at least.
As for #2... how does Render's death set up Lathum? I didn't even at any point correlate Render dying = Lathum might be bad and just don't understand it at all. Because he voted for Render? I don't buy that for a second. I know I have tossed out alot of thought about perhaps path or saldana being bad from the Render kill as being the only reasonable explanation that I could find, but if you don't accept that at all then you have no other real choice but to think old school about this and say if PB's fellow wolves didn't sacrifice him, then they tried to save him.. meaning they had to have voted for Render. That would not then matter if they night killed Render or not...
The fact that Lathum seemed to float that theory feels more forced than anything bearing any simblance of truth to me. I always wonder why someone goes on the defensive like that when no one else had even mentioned it. As far as I can tell, the only person who suggested Render's death implicated Lathum was Lathum himself.
As far as getting back to Path v Saldana, maybe you're right Narciso.. I have tried lately to temper my all gut, no brain play with some level of balance and likewise have tried to not always assume Saldana is bad every game.. which is why I was looking at Path today. Maybe Saldana is the better choice there, and I'm trying too hard to not go after him first because of past history.