Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips
Your mistake is in assuming the weighting is evidence of bias. Weighting is the hardest part of a pollster's job because they are trying to gauge what will happen based on trends and current voting info. They may or may not be accurate, but being wrong isn't evidence of bias.
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But I did not say that there was bias in the weighting, so you're incorrect that I even made a mistake. My only statement was that the weighting of the polls is very likely to be way off from what will happen on election day. DJ Drummond was the one that brought up bias. I agree with your point, especially regarding voting info. Many of these polling groups base a lot of their weights on groups like ACORN in regards to possible increases in voting numbers on either side. Those groups have said that registration favors the Democrats on a 3:1 ratio. However, as we know from reports regarding state registrations, a large number of these registrations are being rejected while it's becoming more apparant that many of the newly registered voters will not show up for Election Day. So you're definitely correct that it isn't necessarily based in bias, but that doesn't change the fact that this election is likely much closer than what these polls are currently showing.