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Old 10-15-2008, 11:07 AM   #7393
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
Quote:
Originally Posted by Butter_of_69 View Post
I agree with the others who have said that the author of the posted Op-Ed piece doesn't show why the Survey USA models are flawed, because comparing them to previous year's models doesn't count. Weighting should change over time as registration and party ID change. Correlating that with some kind of ACORN conspiracy is a reach.

Also, the Op-Ed doesn't address whether or not the dozens of other polls that show Obama in the lead are fundamentally flawed, aside from "being in the tank for Obama" because they are in blue country. He needs to attack more than just Survey USA in order to actually gain any traction with his argument.

So, let's take the Pennsylvania numbers, which have never had a Democratic turnout greater than 43% in the last 50 years. You don't find the weight of 52% Democrat in the latest poll to be borderline irresponsible. Perhaps you don't, but I thought I'd ask. IMO, a weight 9 points higher than any Democratic turnout in recent history is a majorly flawed poll.

Second, there was no direct relationship made between ACORN and the polls. The only note made was that the Democrat voting counts that are reported to these polls are inflated. A significant portion of these late registrations made by voter registration organizations could be impacted.

I noticed another verification of voter registrations will now occur in Ohio. A judge has ruled that all voter registrations will need to be verified before the election takes place. The Democratic Secretary of State had refused to do so up to this point.

Court orders Ohio to verify newly registered voters - CNN.com
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