Today's State Polls:
Code:
State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Arizona 44% 48% Oct 27 Oct 28 Mason-Dixon
California 55% 33% Oct 18 Oct 28 Field Poll
Colorado 48% 44% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Colorado 51% 45% Oct 27 Oct 28 Marist Coll.
Florida 45% 44% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Iowa 53% 39% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Iowa 55% 40% Oct 28 Oct 29 SurveyUSA
Indiana 46% 49% Oct 28 Oct 29 Rasmussen
Kentucky 43% 55% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
Louisiana 40% 43% Oct 24 Oct 26 Loyola U.
Michigan 50% 38% Oct 26 Oct 28 EPIC-MRA
Minnesota 48% 40% Oct 27 Oct 28 Mason-Dixon
Montana 46% 50% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
North Carolina 47% 43% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
North Carolina 50% 48% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
New Hampshire 53% 40% Oct 27 Oct 29 Suffolk U.
New Jersey 53% 35% Oct 23 Oct 29 Fairleigh Dickinson U.
Ohio 48% 41% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Oklahoma 34% 63% Oct 28 Oct 29 SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania 47% 43% Oct 27 Oct 28 Mason-Dixon
South Carolina 42% 53% Oct 25 Oct 28 Princeton Survey
South Carolina 44% 52% Oct 28 Oct 29 SurveyUSA
Texas 40% 51% Oct 15 Oct 22 U. of Texas
Virginia 48% 44% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Virginia 51% 47% Oct 26 Oct 27 Marist Coll.
Wisconsin 55% 39% Oct 28 Oct 29 SurveyUSA
Here's my summation from a few days ago, interspersed with the changes:
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Originally Posted by flere-imsaho
Arizona is actually probably not in play. Hope McCain didn't spend too much on those robocalls there.
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I still don't think Arizona is really in play. Neither do I think Louisiana is in play.
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Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are probably lost for McCain.
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I think this conclusion still holds, despite tightening in CO & PA. Of course, if McCain's internal polling was showing a tightening in PA a few days ago, it would greatly explain why he's targeting it, especially when you consider...
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Of those, Colorado & New Mexico were Bush states in 2004. Since CO has 9 EVs and NM has 5, that's a swing of 28 EVs, putting McCain at 272 and Obama at 265 (Bush won with 286 and Kerry lost with 251), assuming nothing else changes from 2004.
However, Iowa went for Bush in 2004 and is now Safe Obama, and has 7 EVs. That takes us to McCain at 265 and Obama at 272. Since 269 is needed to win, if we assume CO & NM stay Likely Obama, it's over.
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Still the case. McCain clearly needs to flip a Kerry state, and I'd say it now looks like PA is the obvious candidate, based on this one poll.
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The battleground states are currently Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.
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No change here. McCain's looking better in Indiana, but Obama's looking better in North Carolina & Ohio. As an aside, based on the local news (I'm in Chicago), I expect a clusterfuck of epic proportions regarding the voting in NW Indiana.
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All of these states went for Bush in 2004. If we forget about CO & NM for a moment and take Obama with Kerry States (251) + Iowa (7), we have 258, so he needs another 11 EVs. Nevada doesn't do it, because there are only 5 there, but the next lowest are IN & MO at 11 EVs.
Bottom-line: If Obama holds all of the Kerry States and Iowa (almost certain at this point) and flips any one of Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia or (Colorado + (Nevada or New Mexico)), he wins. While there are other states that are tossups (Montana and North Dakota, for instance), I think it's safe to assume that if they go Obama, he'll already have won one of these 6 battlegrounds.
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We are still the same here. The latest NC & OH numbers have to worry McCain a lot, but the big X-factor here would be if he flips PA.