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Here's something I've been thinking about as the talking heads have begun predicting an Obama victory, and possibly a "large" victory, where "large" probably means a few percentage points.
We know Obama's raised a ton of money. We know Obama's run a very tight, very efficient, very successful campaign. We know McCain's not run a very good campaign and has had troubles throughout.
The environment has favored Obama. The economy needs a lot of help. People want us out of Iraq. People are tired of Bush and the GOP.
Yet with all this, the most likely outcome, at this point, seems to be an Obama win by a few percentage points. What conclusions can we draw from this, if any?
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