Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips
One, the daily fluctuations of a poll like this really don't tell us much. There's no reason to believe that today's numbers are any more accurate than yesterdays, so maybe he's still at 60 or 61. Really it doesn't matter.
But, if you want to play the daily tracking poll game, you picked the worst day possible. Are you going to be back on Friday when most of the poll is post speech? I'd imagine his approval rating will go up five to ten points based on snap polls. But still, it really won't matter.
See you Friday!
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I doubt it will raise 5-10 points. That's a pretty unreasonable expectation. 2-3 points is generally what we'd see, though I'm not sure that even that is attainable given the current economic climate. Also, as the article shows, it's certainly not a one day trend. His rating has fallen steadily over the course of a month. That's not a minute sample as you'd like to portray it. A one month sample is much more reliable than measuring any change between now and Friday.