View Single Post
Old 04-19-2009, 08:29 PM   #53
Chief Rum
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
Hmm, a little troubled by having a public discussion for the role of Ephor, but I can acknowledge that hoops is exactly right that by failing to focus our votes, we might allow the choice to fall into the hands of the wolves.

But how dangerous is it? We know from what Pass has said that we are likely to have two wolves in this city, with possibly the EHist as well. The EHist cannot communicate with the wolves (nor does he know who they are), so they can't work together on this one. That means we have a "pooling danger" of two votes. So if we make sure someone gets at least three votes, we remove the danger of the wolves by themselves picking the Ephor.

Technically, four votes is better. If some villager unluckily picks a wolf to back (very likely, with 7 of 9 villagers randomly having a 77.8% chance of voting for a villager, the odds that no wolf receives a villager vote for Ephor is a miniscule 17%), four votes gives us a lot more protection.

A landslide vote for the Ephor gives us clear protection from the wolves, if we chose the subject of that voting carefully (although we have so little information right now, it's impossible to make a reasoned choice). But a landslide vote also clearly identifies the Ephor, and I am not ready yet to make the leap others have been the last game or two, that the Ephor is not an automatic kill for the wolves, especially given no other choices.

Hmm, in fact, I might even have a better idea, combining the need for protection from allowing the wolves to dictate the Ephor choice with our need to introduce a little question into the Ephor's identity.
__________________
.
.

I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
Chief Rum is offline   Reply With Quote