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The hitch in the seer plan is if we go believing a wolf seer early on, and get led off a cliff. This is the same risk as believing a wolf cultist. The simple solution in both cases is not to. We just don't trust the data for anything conclusive until we have some means or evidence to use as verification of their allegiance. There's no reason to get bogged down if we realize it's likely to happen.
This is a large part of the logic that's been in my head to get the seer role away from hoops. Because of the context of his backing of this plan and his nature, any data that comes from him is bound to wind up consuming a large part of our attention in any day. As much as possible I want this to not be about just our believed seer, at least until we can actually demonstrate that they should be trusted.
That said, I understand why BG day 1 is a good choice, too, because it takes the whole temptation to get bogged down in he said seer wars out of play. And ultimately that might prove to be better. However, in the end a BG has to get very lucky to have as much affect on a game as even one well placed seer scan. And if we are going to go down the seer path, the earlier the better, because it increases the chance our real seer is alive to give us some sort of verification.
This is why I am against the cultist plan - ultimately, regardless if we believe a seer or a cultist, we are probably going to need a corpse to figure out what's going on.
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