Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS)

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 09:17 PM

Ok so I'm catching up but need to do some correcting here. We need to lynch. CR's math is missing an important component: by Day 5 we'll have a 90% chance of learning the aurora of ONE person. The math here is quite complicated to show what the premuations are, and it's too close to deadline for me to do it, but the overwhelming answer of that ONE person's scan is that we would catch a villager. Meanwhile we'd likely have lost 5 villagers. THIS is not a good thing. Trading 5 deaths for 1 cleared villager is NOT a good course of action. If, instead, we leave Pass to rot for 5 days while lynching others we maintain a 66% chance of learning what Pass is, while having a much higher % chance of catching a wolf.

06-09-2009, 09:17 PM	#697
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Ok so I'm catching up but need to do some correcting here. We need to lynch. CR's math is missing an important component: by Day 5 we'll have a 90% chance of learning the aurora of ONE person. The math here is quite complicated to show what the premuations are, and it's too close to deadline for me to do it, but the overwhelming answer of that ONE person's scan is that we would catch a villager. Meanwhile we'd likely have lost 5 villagers. THIS is not a good thing. Trading 5 deaths for 1 cleared villager is NOT a good course of action. If, instead, we leave Pass to rot for 5 days while lynching others we maintain a 66% chance of learning what Pass is, while having a much higher % chance of catching a wolf.