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Originally Posted by hyde4us11
Please tell, thinking is overrrated as well lol.
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I use pythagorean and BABIP somewhat similarly when I look at them. I often say to folks that statistics in a vacuum can actually be counter productive. You need to understand what the surroundings were that generated those stats.
Both BABIP and Pyth. Record I feel have a good amount of luck involved into their readings at times because they use a large number of events and try to formulate a result from that based on an average, when sometimes averages don't tell the entire story.
With Pyth. record, there could be several reasons why a team would have a very good or very bad Pyth record. A team could have a very large disparity between top pitchers and bottom pitchers, where the best pitchers always keep them in the game but the weak pitchers always get blown out. A team could have a horrible bullpen where every close (1-run or extra inning game) ends up going against them which would lead to a poor pyth record. or a team could just be unlucky, among other factors.
With BABIP, theoretically, the defense could just be poor, could just not get to the balls in places where it is hit the most often to cause a high BABIP. Perhaps the team plays in a poor Home Run great extra base hit ball park where you just have a lot more balls that are hit get put into play and going for hits. Or once again, a pitcher could just be unlucky.
With Pyth record, if I can't find anything that jumps out at me as being a reason for a great Pyth record (like I did see with Boston on their run several years ago, when it was obvious to me why they always had a great Pyth record), then I'll likely chalk it up to luck. I'll also assume that means if the team continues to play, they have a good shot of balancing it out and going on a win streak too as luck "evens out".
With BABIP, if a pitcher is way different then the rest of his teammate pitchers, I'll look to see if I can find a reason for it. Do they pitch in a way that is horrible for their park? Do they do something that would make me think they might have a much worse BABIP? If not, I once again would chalk it up perhaps to luck. When I see a pitcher with a very low BABIP to the point that it looks too low to me, I see "career year" all over that and consider that is a time to sell the pitcher when his value is the highest. When I see a pitcher with the opposite, then perhaps it is worth taking a chance on him to see if a new location will help him out.
Anyways, not any science there, more just gut feels and guesses then anything else.