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Old 02-11-2010, 12:59 PM   #389
Chief Rum
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
While obviously losing a bodyguard is tough, getting the wolves to knock off one of the key people in two day's voting is great. It gives us a scan like result (and hopefully not a duplicate one).

We now know Willie Marks made the kill last night, for whatever that's worth. It might be helpful down the line somehow.

It would be interesting to try to figure out who Lathum would have been guarding.

Actually, we know Cavanaugh is in the game, not Marks, and can be reasonably certain that Lathum was the target last night, unless there are rules to bodyguarding that are not for public knowledge and that differ from the standard BG role.

GE specifically states it is Cavanaugh who does last night's kill.

Marks' role suggests that Rio would not be killed in the role of protecting someone else unless Marks himself is the targetman. In other words, let's say Rio was protecting Capone, and Capone was targeted by the wolves, the way I read the rules, Rio would thwart the attack of any wolf--and learn their identity--unless it is Marks doing the attacking. If Marks attacks, he will fail to kill the target--but will kill Rio instead.

Now, we know Rio was killed and that he was doing his BG work at the time, but we also know Cavanaugh did the killing, not Marks. So that tells me that Rio was always the target, not Rio's protectee (presumeably Capone).

This is actually very interesting. Coming off of last night's lynch, Lathum was clearly under suspicion. He had two days in a row of close lynches. Any normal wolf group would have not targeted Lathum, because they expect him to be lynched. And yet they did. This tells me one of two things (and possibly both); 1) Lathum dropped a hint or hints as to his role and the wolves picked up on it; and/or 2) Lathum was close to the mark on his suspicions of who the real wolves were.

I actually lean to #2 and not #1. Reason being, if the wolves knew Lathum was Rio, wouldn't they have sent Marks to be sure? But they didn't; they sent Cavanaugh.

That tells me Lathum may have been hot and heavy after a wolf or two in his posts yesterday. We may want to review them carefully to see who would be most interested in him leaving the game.

The writeup also presents us with another issue: how much of it was flavor and how much of it was exactly as stated? Lathum was protecting Al Capone last night--according to GE's writeup. If Capone were the target, it makes sense to name Capone in the writeup here. But the rules seem to state this was a hit on Lathum/Rio. GE could just as easily have written a piece about Rio dying that didn't involve Capone or any protectee.

So my question for GE: Is Capone's inclusion in the night kill writeup just flavor? Or is that a moderator statement that Lathum was specifically protecting Capone?

And we better hope that I have the right read on this (Lathum was the target). Because if the wolves somehow actually did target Capone and this was the result--than they now know who Capone is. And we don't have a BG to stop them.
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I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
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