2018 Draft and Training Camp
Looking at our roster situation, I think my main needs here are longer term. Without a 1st round pick, we aren't likely to add any major impact players, so we're mostly just working around the fringes. OL, WR, and LB seem like the positions where we would benefit from some rotation-level depth. But we're basically into BPA mode by now.
I am not wild about any of my options in round 2, and decide to mostly pull out of this draft, dealing down and grabbing future picks from Oakland. We are going to load up on zero-AP late round draft picks here and beyond, but in time the cap cost might make this strategy less attractive.
5 – Any trade involving future 1st round pick from another team (2+3+4+5 for OAK 6,2+6+7 plus swap of 1sts)
Code:
Pick Pos Name Adj DSSABP Dev Notes AP PreTC
6.01 WR Hugh Poling 4.5 + - 20% Big bars, 4.43 supports BPR, KR 0
6.17 RB Lee Poole 4.8 + - 48% Elus and Hrec solid bars 0
6.30 K Ed Shields 3.1 ++ 51% Solid bars, decent FG Acc 0
7.01 WR Blake LaChapelle 4.2 +- 35% ST and return skills, some BPR 0
7.16 ILB David Prior 4.2 +- 9% Run D and Agil drill fit well 0
7.30 OLB Robert Daliere 3.5 + - 57% Some PRStr/PHit, Aff+ 0
Adding role players here, that's fine. So, we had planned to use about 6AP in the draft, instead we use 5AP to trade out of most of it, and still add six rookie players. (I'm sensing a too-available end-around here, incidentally... note posted to this effect
here)
We have 52 players signed, and 9 AP left for use this year. That gives us some freedom to splash in the rookie market – but the biggest thing we have sitting out there is the contract for QB Brady. If we intend to keep him, then it likely has to be a full-range renegotiation, and that will take 4 AP right there. We have a fleet of other veterans on the last year of their deals, too, but none measures up to Brady in overall value (10th year S Byrd will get cheaper this year if we just give him his request). So, if I set aside 6 Ap for those two renegs, then we could use 3 AP in late free agency if something seemed valuable, like a good 2nd or 3rd year player. Otherwise, I can just extend one more guy like S Dana Kirk or CB Borders.
We also have $34 in cap space left, suggesting that we are going to do better than I had guessed there, and will leave 15% of the cap unused. That's another 3 AP to play with – so maybe Kirk AND Borders can get locked up. Of course, making guarantees into future years when QB Brady might be set to explode from $12m to $30 or more is a dicey proposition. We will at least wait until after training camp to work on any renegs.
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (RB Jason Nichols)
I flirt with the idea of spending some AP here on a linebacker, hoping to fill my MLB role for next year and beyond, but blanch at the high AP cost to sign a recently released player. (Not sure that the high cost there is justified – it seemingly just makes any move on such a player untenable, as I see it – and I don't really recall what horrible evil I was worried about when I created the high AP cost, likely the unrealistic “sit and wait for some dumbassed AI team to require a blowup” approach)
Anyhow, that's our 53, and we're ready to go.
Code:
Top Ten Most Likely Busts:
Name Team Pos Change
Tolbert, Mike Buffalo FB -9
Poling, Hugh Buffalo SE -7
Soliai, Paul Buffalo LDT -6
Wood, Eric Buffalo LG -6
Shields, Ed Buffalo K -6
Batten, Danny Buffalo WLB -5
George, Ernie Buffalo QB -5
Spiller, C.J. Buffalo RB -4
Poole, Lee Buffalo RB -4
Borders, Donnie Buffalo RCB -4
Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:
Name Team Pos Change
Bundren, Walter Buffalo RB 2
Shepard, Ernest Buffalo LDE 2
Hughes, Harris Buffalo RDE 1
Brady, Van Buffalo QB 1
Banta, Leroy Buffalo LCB 1
Stonebarger, Frank Buffalo SE 1
Brohm, Brian Buffalo QB 1
Gonzalez, Mitchell Buffalo SS 1
Ross, Tommie Buffalo P 1
Beard, Tommy Buffalo FL 1
Nothing too much to see here. Older guys declining and dying on the vine (QB George). WR Poling had bars way too good to be true, but still seems pretty useful even after the -7. RB RB Spiller is probably going to be a minsal type by next season, even if we get a solid run from him again this year.
Anyway...nothing here that changes plans. Same system, same cast of characters, and same aspirations. Clock is ticking, we ought to go out and get a ring.
I decide to work out renegotiations first, before plunging in too deeply. Wow. I have an offer in to QB Brady, of 6yrs, $186, – with $54m guaranteed. His response... it's “close.” This is the BIG pivot here, obviously. $31m a year (or whatever more it will take) clearly defines this franchise, under these rules. If we don't lock him up now, the likely direction is something like perma-tag (until he hols out), or else tag-and-trade. Financially, that makes sense... and at the end of next season we'd have flexibility to sign long term, if we wanted to. The tag number for QB this year is less than $17m... that's a lot cheaper than the $31m we'd be committing to for multiple years of happiness. I decide to back off, at lest for right now.
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (S Byrd)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (S Kirk)
I'll sit back on my 8 remaining AP, and will reserve my options. Maybe Brady can play himself wealthy this season.