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Old 06-22-2011, 10:00 AM   #83
Narcizo
Pro Rookie
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Darth has one vote Autumn.

You keep on mentioning that the seer will be forced to reveal if there's a three-way tie today or something. Umm... no he won't. He'll be forced to sit it out and hope that the dice don't fall his way. There's absolutely no point him revealing today no matter what the vote is. So there's a 1/10 chance of us killing the seer today, followed by a 1/9 chance of the wolves killing him (all other things being equal with hints and reads and whatnot). So there's a 19/90 chance of the seer being killed today if we lynch - compared to a 1/10 chance of him being killed if it's a no lynch.

There's a 3/10 chance of lynching a baddy or forcing a wolf into taking action to protect his wolfmate. What's that 27/90 chance of getting a baddy, or getting decent information in the process. Granted a seer is worth more than the sorceror but a wolf in hand is worth two in the bushes. Or something.

I'm not really sure how you voting for all and sundry would signal to them and not to us that you're the sorceror, Autumn.
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