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Narcizo · 06-22-2011, 10:19 AM

I shall continue to argue with myself.

Ah-ha. But if we don't lynch today, tomorrow we have a 33% chance of lynching a baddy (6:3) even without the seer infomation. Worst case scenario on day three we have a 3/7 (42%?) chance of lynching a baddy. Miss again and we have definitely lost.

If we lynch today we have a 30% chance, tomorrow if we miss we have a 3/8 (36%) chance and the next day if we miss, we're in all sorts of trouble and we can reasonably expect to lose although there's a chance I guess.

Either way we probably only have two shots at a lynching unless we hit someone, although there's a very slim chance of the village winning if they're 3:2+1, I guess.

So, yeah, like I was saying. No lynch is probably the best bet in these circumstances.

06-22-2011, 10:19 AM	#91
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I shall continue to argue with myself. Ah-ha. But if we don't lynch today, tomorrow we have a 33% chance of lynching a baddy (6:3) even without the seer infomation. Worst case scenario on day three we have a 3/7 (42%?) chance of lynching a baddy. Miss again and we have definitely lost. If we lynch today we have a 30% chance, tomorrow if we miss we have a 3/8 (36%) chance and the next day if we miss, we're in all sorts of trouble and we can reasonably expect to lose although there's a chance I guess. Either way we probably only have two shots at a lynching unless we hit someone, although there's a very slim chance of the village winning if they're 3:2+1, I guess. So, yeah, like I was saying. No lynch is probably the best bet in these circumstances.