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Yeah, I totally don't play this way, but I'm actually taking a statistics course right now, so the probability is interesting me.
Day 1 Lynch: 24% we lose the seer somehow, 20% we catch a wolf, 19% chance seer finds a wolf, 57% chance he scans a villager (taking into account the possibility of the seer dying).
Day 1 No lynch 12.5% we lose the seer, 0% we catch a wolf, 19.25% seer catches a wolf, 68% seer scans a villager.
So it's interesting that not lynching doesn't increase our chance of scanning a wolf, though it does increase our chance of scanning a villager. Obviously we would have to do this cumulatively for a couple days to give a real cost benefit, and I don't think I want to take this that far.
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