Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgfan
I think Oklahoma wants to stay tied to Texas if they can, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they've been sniffing around as a contingency plan.
The more I think about it, the more I think Larry Scott is sitting pretty. There was a perception he overplayed his hand this past off-season and got worked by DeLoss Dodds, but I think time is on Scott's side.
The financial imbalance in the Big "12", especially in comparison to the other big conferences, is going to lead to other programs breaking away, sooner rather than later. If Mizzou could find a taker among the Pac-12/Big Ten/SEC they'd be gone in a heartbeat.
Texas could try to scape some lesser programs into the conference to try to keep it around and keep a home for their other sports, but I suspect if more than A&M leaves - if Mizzou is able to jump ship, then Oklahoma will bolt (with Oklahoma State tagging along), and then Texas is facing real problems with their TV negotiations as the kings of a very small pond.
Texas really doesn't want to go independent either. I'm sure they'll wave that threat around, but where would they put their other sports? It'd have to be something like Conference USA or the Sun Belt, and (no offense to those conferences), that'd be a big step down.
The way Scott set up the regional Pac-12 networks allows room for the Longhorn Network to be folded in, pending some key compromises. That ESPN is one of the partners in the Pac-12 TV deal also probably helps.
I tend to think the dissolution of the Big "12" is still probably a few years away, because we don't even know if the SEC is willing to take A&M. Chances are probably higher than many of us think that the patchwork alliance holds for a while. But longer-term, I still think there's a decent shot the Pac-12 becomes the Pac-16 with Texas & Oklahoma the key pieces added (and probably Texas Tech & Oklahoma State along for the ride).
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I know OU wants to stay aligned with Texas, but I don't think they'll have any real interest in watching Texas control the entire conference while running around on a leash behind them. Texas wanted all the money from their network and they wanted all the prestige. The problem has always been that they will get what they wish for. They are going to get all the money for their network and they will be in a garbage conference with no prestige. I didn't expect the moment to happen this quickly, but I did expect it to happen.
Texas is either going to accept some major concessions and not hold all the power in whatever conference they are in, or they are going to be surrounded by mediocrity. Their choice.